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Fenerbahçe vs Kayserispor — League #203 2026

Fenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Kayserispor
Kayserispor
11/9/2025League #203League #203 · Round 12Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Fenerbahçe70%
×Draw17%
Kayserispor13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fenerbahçe
2.58
Kayserispor
1.04

Fenerbahçe creates 148% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 12 away

creates per match

Fenerbahçe
2.75
Kayserispor
0.92

allows per match

Fenerbahçe
1.17
Kayserispor
2.42

finishing

Fenerbahçe+0.00on par
Kayserispor+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fenerbahçe ↓

Kayserispor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Fenerbahçe or draw
87%
Fenerbahçe or Kayserispor
83%
Draw or Kayserispor
30%

Winning margin

Fenerbahçe wins by 2+
48%
Kayserispor wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Fenerbahçe 1+ goals
92%
Fenerbahçe 2+ goals
72%
Fenerbahçe 3+ goals
47%
Kayserispor 1+ goals
65%
Kayserispor 2+ goals
28%
Kayserispor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)
84%
Kayserispor (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fenerbahçe at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.17 · 24 matches

Kayserispor away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fenerbahçe attack 2.75 + Kayserispor defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.58

Kayserispor attack 0.92 + Fenerbahçe defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Fenerbahçe scores more
70%
level
17%
Kayserispor scores more
13%

Fenerbahçe at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Fenerbahçe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fenerbahçe vs Kayserispor

Fenerbahçe beat Kayserispor 4-2 in League #203 on November 9, 2025.

The match was played at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu in Istanbul.