Kawasaki Frontale 1–2 FC Tokyo: Result & Stats

Kawasaki Frontale

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

FC Tokyo

R. Yamahara 31'

S. Muroya 37'

Marcelo Ryan 18'

2/21/2026

J1 League · Round 3Kawasaki Todoroki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Kawasaki Frontale39%

×Draw25%

FC Tokyo36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kawasaki FrontaleExpected goals in this matchFC Tokyo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.42

Kawasaki Frontale

1.50

FC Tokyo

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 19 away

1.59

creates per match

1.46

1.38

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Kawasaki Frontale

1.59

FC Tokyo

1.46

allows per match

Kawasaki Frontale

1.38

FC Tokyo

1.42

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Kawasaki Frontale+0.33scores more

FC Tokyo-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawasaki Frontale ↓

FC Tokyo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Kawasaki Frontale or draw

64%

Kawasaki Frontale or FC Tokyo

75%

Draw or FC Tokyo

61%

Winning margin

Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+

19%

FC Tokyo wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals

78%

Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals

44%

Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals

19%

FC Tokyo 1+ goals

76%

FC Tokyo 2+ goals

41%

FC Tokyo 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)

52%

FC Tokyo (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawasaki Frontale at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.38 · 12 matches

FC Tokyo away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawasaki Frontale attack 1.59 + FC Tokyo defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.50

FC Tokyo attack 1.46 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kawasaki Frontale scores more

39%

level

25%

FC Tokyo scores more

36%

Kawasaki Frontale at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kawasaki Frontale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

R. Yamahara

Kawasaki Frontale · D

7.9

Match Events

18'

Marcelo Ryan

31'

R. Yamahara↳ Y. Wakizaka

33'

37'

56'

57'

57'

Marcinho← T. Ito

59'

Yasuto Wakizaka

66'

R. Sato← K. Endo

69'

F. Yamada← Marcelo Ryan

73'

Y. Yamamoto← S. Kawahara

81'

K. Koizumi← K. Tokiwa

81'

D. C. Otani← K. Sato

88'

Y. Ozeki← K. Tachibanada

90'

Hiroto Taniguchi

90+4'

Yuto Nagatomo

90+3'

Divine Chinedu Otani

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KawasakiFC

Overview

56%Possession44%

7Total Shots22

0.40Expected Goals (xG)1.51

3Corners4

6Fouls16

Shots

7Total Shots22

3On Target5

1Off Target9

3Blocked8

4Inside Box13

3Outside Box9

Passing

56%Possession44%

601Total Passes463

528Accurate Passes403

88%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

6Fouls16

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0

Match Recap: Kawasaki Frontale vs FC Tokyo

FC Tokyo beat Kawasaki Frontale 2-1 in J1 League on February 21, 2026.

Goals: Marcelo Ryan (18'), R. Yamahara (31'), S. Muroya (37').

Kawasaki Frontale controlled possession (56%) and registered 7 shots to 22.

The match was played at Kawasaki Todoroki Stadium in Kawasaki.

Kawasaki Frontale vs FC Tokyo — J1 League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Kawasaki Frontale vs FC Tokyo