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FC Tokyo vs Kawasaki Frontale — J1 League 2018

FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Kawasaki Frontale
Kawasaki Frontale
K. Takai 72'
S. Yamada 20', 14'
8/11/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 26Ajinomoto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

FC Tokyo38%
×Draw24%
Kawasaki Frontale38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Tokyo
1.53
Kawasaki Frontale
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 11 away

creates per match

FC Tokyo
1.84
Kawasaki Frontale
1.81

allows per match

FC Tokyo
1.26
Kawasaki Frontale
1.22

finishing

FC Tokyo-0.59scores less
Kawasaki Frontale+0.55scores more

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tokyo ↓

Kawasaki Frontale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FC Tokyo or draw
62%
FC Tokyo or Kawasaki Frontale
76%
Draw or Kawasaki Frontale
62%

Winning margin

FC Tokyo wins by 2+
18%
Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

FC Tokyo 1+ goals
78%
FC Tokyo 2+ goals
45%
FC Tokyo 3+ goals
20%
Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals
79%
Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals
45%
Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

FC Tokyo (draw refunded)
50%
Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tokyo at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.26 · 16 matches

Kawasaki Frontale away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.22 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tokyo attack 1.84 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.53

Kawasaki Frontale attack 1.81 + FC Tokyo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Tokyo scores more
38%
level
24%
Kawasaki Frontale scores more
38%

FC Tokyo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Tokyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
K. TakaiKawasaki FrontaleKawasaki Frontale · D
8.3

Match Events

14'
S. Yamada↳ Marcinho
20'
S. Yamada↳ S. van Wermeskerken
36'
Diego Oliveira
46'
R. Araki← S. Anzai
57'
D. Tono← Marcinho
60'
R. Harakawa← K. Koizumi
69'
T. Ogashiwa← Diego Oliveira
70'
K. Tawaratsumida← T. Nakagawa
72'
K. Takai↳ S. Miura
73'
Y. Segawa← S. van Wermeskerken
73'
T. Seko← R. Oshima
85'
Y. Kobayashi← A. Ienaga
85'
H. Yamauchi← S. Yamada
86'
M. Morishige← K. Doi

Possession

41%FC

Shots

12FC

Pass accuracy

50%FC

Statistics

FCKawasaki
Overview
41%Possession59%
12Total Shots9
2.08Expected Goals (xG)1.17
3Corners6
8Fouls9
Shots
12Total Shots9
3On Target4
5Off Target2
4Blocked3
9Inside Box9
3Outside Box0
Passing
41%Possession59%
379Total Passes553
332Accurate Passes492
88%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
8Fouls9
1Yellow Cards0
4Offsides1

J1 League: FC Tokyo 0–3 Kawasaki Frontale

Kawasaki Frontale beat FC Tokyo 3-0 in J1 League on August 11, 2024.

Goals: S. Yamada (14', 20'), K. Takai (72').

Kawasaki Frontale controlled possession (59%) and registered 9 shots to 12.

The match was played at Ajinomoto Stadium in Chōfu.