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FC Tokyo vs Kawasaki Frontale — J1 League 2018

FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Kawasaki Frontale
Kawasaki Frontale
Erison 83'
T. Ito 73'
S. Yamada 55'
3/29/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 7Ajinomoto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

FC Tokyo38%
×Draw24%
Kawasaki Frontale38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Tokyo
1.53
Kawasaki Frontale
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 11 away

creates per match

FC Tokyo
1.84
Kawasaki Frontale
1.81

allows per match

FC Tokyo
1.26
Kawasaki Frontale
1.22

finishing

FC Tokyo-0.59scores less
Kawasaki Frontale+0.55scores more

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tokyo ↓

Kawasaki Frontale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FC Tokyo or draw
62%
FC Tokyo or Kawasaki Frontale
76%
Draw or Kawasaki Frontale
62%

Winning margin

FC Tokyo wins by 2+
18%
Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

FC Tokyo 1+ goals
78%
FC Tokyo 2+ goals
45%
FC Tokyo 3+ goals
20%
Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals
79%
Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals
45%
Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

FC Tokyo (draw refunded)
50%
Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tokyo at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.26 · 16 matches

Kawasaki Frontale away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.22 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tokyo attack 1.84 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.53

Kawasaki Frontale attack 1.81 + FC Tokyo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Tokyo scores more
38%
level
24%
Kawasaki Frontale scores more
38%

FC Tokyo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Tokyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
K. TakaiKawasaki FrontaleKawasaki Frontale · D
7.9

Match Events

55'
S. Yamada
65'
K. Higashi← K. Hashimoto
65'
T. Ogashiwa← K. Tawaratsumida
71'
K. Tsukagawa← K. Sato
71'
T. Ito← Marcinho
73'
T. Ito
78'
K. Tachibanada← R. Oshima
78'
Erison← S. Yamada
83'
Erison↳ Y. Wakizaka
86'
K. Tokiwa← T. Nakagawa
86'
L. Nozawa← K. Doi
86'
Y. Segawa← A. Ienaga
86'
S. Kawahara← Y. Yamamoto

Possession

57%FC

Shots

8FC

Pass accuracy

51%FC

Statistics

FCKawasaki
Overview
57%Possession43%
8Total Shots12
0.34Expected Goals (xG)1.55
6Corners3
8Fouls7
Shots
8Total Shots12
2On Target6
3Off Target2
3Blocked4
4Inside Box9
4Outside Box3
Passing
57%Possession43%
629Total Passes467
561Accurate Passes402
89%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
8Fouls7
0Offsides2

Match Recap: FC Tokyo vs Kawasaki Frontale

Kawasaki Frontale beat FC Tokyo 3-0 in J1 League on March 29, 2025.

Goals: S. Yamada (55'), T. Ito (73'), Erison (83').

FC Tokyo controlled possession (57%) and registered 8 shots to 12.

The match was played at Ajinomoto Stadium in Tokyo.