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Kawasaki Frontale vs FC Tokyo — J1 League 2018

Kawasaki Frontale
Kawasaki Frontale
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo
K. Endo 23'
9/20/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 30Kawasaki Todoroki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Kawasaki Frontale39%
×Draw25%
FC Tokyo36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kawasaki Frontale
1.50
FC Tokyo
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 19 away

creates per match

Kawasaki Frontale
1.59
FC Tokyo
1.46

allows per match

Kawasaki Frontale
1.38
FC Tokyo
1.42

finishing

Kawasaki Frontale+0.33scores more
FC Tokyo-0.14scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawasaki Frontale ↓

FC Tokyo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kawasaki Frontale or draw
64%
Kawasaki Frontale or FC Tokyo
75%
Draw or FC Tokyo
61%

Winning margin

Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+
19%
FC Tokyo wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals
78%
Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals
44%
Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals
19%
FC Tokyo 1+ goals
76%
FC Tokyo 2+ goals
41%
FC Tokyo 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)
52%
FC Tokyo (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawasaki Frontale at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.38 · 12 matches

FC Tokyo away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawasaki Frontale attack 1.59 + FC Tokyo defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.50

FC Tokyo attack 1.46 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kawasaki Frontale scores more
39%
level
25%
FC Tokyo scores more
36%

Kawasaki Frontale at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kawasaki Frontale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
K. EndoFC TokyoFC Tokyo · M
7.9

Match Events

23'
K. Endo↳ M. Nagakura
31'
Marcos GuilhermeGoal cancelled
46'
Y. Wakizaka← L. Romanic
59'
Kanta Doi
63'
K. Sato← T. Nakagawa
75'
Marcinho
79'
K. Tachibanada← S. Kawahara
79'
A. Ienaga← T. Ito
79'
T. Miyagi← Marcinho
81'
K. Tawaratsumida← Marcos Guilherme
81'
K. Koizumi← T. Ko
84'
Y. Kobayashi← Erison
85'
S. Muroya← K. Endo
90+5'
Yasuto WakizakaGoal cancelled

Possession

59%Kawasaki

Shots

13Kawasaki

Pass accuracy

52%Kawasaki

Statistics

KawasakiFC
Overview
59%Possession41%
13Total Shots11
0.79Expected Goals (xG)1.81
6Corners2
11Fouls15
Shots
13Total Shots11
3On Target3
7Off Target6
3Blocked2
6Inside Box8
7Outside Box3
Passing
59%Possession41%
515Total Passes364
444Accurate Passes284
86%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls15
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides4

J1 League: Kawasaki Frontale 0–1 FC Tokyo

FC Tokyo beat Kawasaki Frontale 1-0 in J1 League on September 20, 2025.

Goals: K. Endo (23').

Kawasaki Frontale controlled possession (59%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Kawasaki Todoroki Stadium in Kawasaki.