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Kashiwa Reysol vs Shimizu S-pulse — J1 League 2025

Kashiwa Reysol
Kashiwa Reysol
Preview
11:00
Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
2/13/2027J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 21Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium
Big match
51%
Kashiwa Reysol
model favours
51%26%23%

Shimizu S-pulse score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Kashiwa Reysol51%
×Draw26%
Shimizu S-pulse23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kashiwa Reysol
1.51
Shimizu S-pulse
0.93

Kashiwa Reysol creates 62% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 16 away

creates per match

Kashiwa Reysol
1.50
Shimizu S-pulse
1.03

allows per match

Kashiwa Reysol
0.83
Shimizu S-pulse
1.52

finishing

Kashiwa Reysol+0.50scores more
Shimizu S-pulse-0.28scores less

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kashiwa Reysol ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kashiwa Reysol or draw
77%
Kashiwa Reysol or Shimizu S-pulse
74%
Draw or Shimizu S-pulse
49%

Winning margin

Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+
26%
Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals
78%
Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals
44%
Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals
19%
Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
61%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
24%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)
69%
Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kashiwa Reysol at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.83 · 5 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.52 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kashiwa Reysol attack 1.50 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.51

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.03 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kashiwa Reysol scores more
51%
level
26%
Shimizu S-pulse scores more
23%

Kashiwa Reysol at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kashiwa Reysol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Kashiwa Reysol have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • 40% of Kashiwa Reysol’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Kashiwa Reysol
Attack-heavy
Shimizu S-pulse
Balanced
55%Possession51%
81%Pass accuracy79%
14.0Shots12.0
1.64xGBiggest gap1.23
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Kashiwa ReysolShimizu S-pulse

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

4
Kashiwa Reysol
1
Draws
0
Shimizu S-pulse
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 40%
2–01–01–13–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Reysol
LWWWW
S-pulse
WLDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kashiwa Reysol host Shimizu S-pulse

February 13, 2027: Kashiwa Reysol take on Shimizu S-pulse in J1 League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Kashiwa Reysol host Shimizu S-pulse at Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.