Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kasımpaşa vs Fenerbahçe — League #203 2026

Kasımpaşa
Kasımpaşa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Fenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe
9/21/2025League #203League #203 · Round 6Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Kasımpaşa22%
×Draw22%
Fenerbahçe56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasımpaşa
1.20
Fenerbahçe
2.02

Fenerbahçe creates 68% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 16 away

creates per match

Kasımpaşa
1.50
Fenerbahçe
2.06

allows per match

Kasımpaşa
1.97
Fenerbahçe
0.89

finishing

Kasımpaşa+0.07on par
Fenerbahçe+0.63scores more

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasımpaşa ↓

Fenerbahçe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Kasımpaşa or draw
44%
Kasımpaşa or Fenerbahçe
78%
Draw or Fenerbahçe
78%

Winning margin

Kasımpaşa wins by 2+
9%
Fenerbahçe wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Kasımpaşa 1+ goals
70%
Kasımpaşa 2+ goals
34%
Kasımpaşa 3+ goals
12%
Fenerbahçe 1+ goals
87%
Fenerbahçe 2+ goals
60%
Fenerbahçe 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Kasımpaşa (draw refunded)
28%
Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasımpaşa at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.97 · 7 matches

Fenerbahçe away — creates 2.06, concedes 0.89 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasımpaşa attack 1.50 + Fenerbahçe defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.20

Fenerbahçe attack 2.06 + Kasımpaşa defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kasımpaşa scores more
22%
level
22%
Fenerbahçe scores more
56%

Fenerbahçe at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Fenerbahçe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #203: Kasımpaşa 1–1 Fenerbahçe

Kasımpaşa and Fenerbahçe drew 1-1 in League #203 on September 21, 2025.

The match was played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Istanbul.