Fenerbahçe 1–1 Kasımpaşa: Result & Stats

Fenerbahçe

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Kasımpaşa

M. Asensio 90'

J. Allevinah 90'

2/23/2026

League #203 · Round 23Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Fenerbahçe59%

×Draw22%

Kasımpaşa20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FenerbahçeExpected goals in this matchKasımpaşa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.04

Fenerbahçe

1.96

Kasımpaşa

1.04

Fenerbahçe creates 88% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 7 away

2.49

creates per match

1.20

0.88

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Fenerbahçe

2.49

Kasımpaşa

1.20

allows per match

Fenerbahçe

0.88

Kasımpaşa

1.43

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

Fenerbahçe+0.30scores more

Kasımpaşa+0.23scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fenerbahçe ↓

Kasımpaşa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Fenerbahçe or draw

80%

Fenerbahçe or Kasımpaşa

78%

Draw or Kasımpaşa

41%

Winning margin

Fenerbahçe wins by 2+

35%

Kasımpaşa wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Fenerbahçe 1+ goals

86%

Fenerbahçe 2+ goals

58%

Fenerbahçe 3+ goals

31%

Kasımpaşa 1+ goals

65%

Kasımpaşa 2+ goals

28%

Kasımpaşa 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)

75%

Kasımpaşa (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fenerbahçe at home — creates 2.49, concedes 0.88 · 14 matches

Kasımpaşa away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fenerbahçe attack 2.49 + Kasımpaşa defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.96

Kasımpaşa attack 1.20 + Fenerbahçe defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Fenerbahçe scores more

59%

level

22%

Kasımpaşa scores more

20%

Fenerbahçe at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Fenerbahçe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

L. Mercan

Fenerbahçe · D

8.9

Match Events

27'

Y. E. Demir← C. Soyuncu

38'

Fousseni Diabaté

40'

N. Kante← J. Oosterwolde

41'

Andri Baldursson

42'

Godfried Frimpong

46'

M. Muldur← A. Musaba

46'

E. Tasdemir← G. Frimpong

68'

Cafu←

70'

Cenk Tosun

76'

Fred← I. Yuksek

76'

76'

80'

82'

84'

J. Allevinah← F. Diabate

84'

86'

90+8'

90+6'

90+3'

90+3'

90'

90'

J. Allevinah↳ A. F. Baldursson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FenerbahçeKasımpaşa

Overview

68%Possession32%

21Total Shots5

1.27Expected Goals (xG)1.10

8Corners1

9Fouls16

Shots

21Total Shots5

5On Target3

6Off Target1

10Blocked1

12Inside Box3

9Outside Box2

Passing

68%Possession32%

554Total Passes269

486Accurate Passes175

88%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

-0.42Goals Prevented-0.42

Discipline

9Fouls16

3Yellow Cards7

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0