Fenerbahçe 3–1 Kasımpaşa: Result & Stats

Fenerbahçe

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Kasımpaşa

Y. En-Nesyri 71', 21'

O. Aydın 52'

M. Fall 62'

2/16/2025

League #203 · Round 24Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Fenerbahçe60%

×Draw21%

Kasımpaşa19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FenerbahçeExpected goals in this matchKasımpaşa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.04

Fenerbahçe

2.02

Kasımpaşa

1.04

Fenerbahçe creates 94% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

2.58

creates per match

1.22

0.86

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Fenerbahçe

2.58

Kasımpaşa

1.22

allows per match

Fenerbahçe

0.86

Kasımpaşa

1.46

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

Fenerbahçe+0.34scores more

Kasımpaşa+0.28scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fenerbahçe ↓

Kasımpaşa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Fenerbahçe or draw

81%

Fenerbahçe or Kasımpaşa

79%

Draw or Kasımpaşa

40%

Winning margin

Fenerbahçe wins by 2+

36%

Kasımpaşa wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Fenerbahçe 1+ goals

87%

Fenerbahçe 2+ goals

60%

Fenerbahçe 3+ goals

33%

Kasımpaşa 1+ goals

65%

Kasımpaşa 2+ goals

28%

Kasımpaşa 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)

76%

Kasımpaşa (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fenerbahçe at home — creates 2.58, concedes 0.86 · 13 matches

Kasımpaşa away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.46 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fenerbahçe attack 2.58 + Kasımpaşa defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 2.02

Kasımpaşa attack 1.22 + Fenerbahçe defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Fenerbahçe scores more

60%

level

21%

Kasımpaşa scores more

19%

Fenerbahçe at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Fenerbahçe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Y. En-Nesyri

Fenerbahçe · F

8.0

Match Events

21'

31'

33'

52'

59'

62'

M. Fall↳ Cláudio Winck

65'

E. Džeko← Talisca

65'

B. Osayi-Samuel← M. Müldür

65'

A. Barák← M. Ben Ouanes

71'

Y. En-Nesyri↳ E. Džeko

75'

F. Kostić← L. Mercan

75'

Y. Akçiçek← O. Aydın

79'

C. Keleş← Cafú

83'

İ. Kahveci← M. Yandaş

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FenerbahçeKasımpaşa

Overview

45%Possession55%

13Total Shots13

1.35Expected Goals (xG)1.22

1Corners3

15Fouls12

Shots

13Total Shots13

6On Target5

4Off Target6

3Blocked2

9Inside Box7

4Outside Box6

Passing

45%Possession55%

460Total Passes560

376Accurate Passes486

82%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

-0.69Goals Prevented-0.69

Discipline

15Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1

League #203: Fenerbahçe 3–1 Kasımpaşa

Fenerbahçe beat Kasımpaşa 3-1 in League #203 on February 16, 2025.

Goals: Y. En-Nesyri (21', 71'), O. Aydın (52'), M. Fall (62').

Kasımpaşa controlled possession (55%) and registered 13 shots to 13.

The match was played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi in İstanbul.

Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa — League #203 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League #203: Fenerbahçe 3–1 Kasımpaşa