Kasımpaşa 0–2 Fenerbahçe: Result & Stats

Kasımpaşa

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Fenerbahçe

D. Tadić 39' (pen)

A. Saint-Maximin 22'

9/15/2024

League #203 · Round 5Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Kasımpaşa26%

×Draw23%

Fenerbahçe51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KasımpaşaExpected goals in this matchFenerbahçe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.87

Kasımpaşa

1.29

Fenerbahçe

1.87

Fenerbahçe creates 45% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

1.61

creates per match

1.86

1.87

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Kasımpaşa

1.61

Fenerbahçe

1.86

allows per match

Kasımpaşa

1.87

Fenerbahçe

0.97

+0.39scores more than expected

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Kasımpaşa+0.39scores more

Fenerbahçe-0.04on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasımpaşa ↓

Fenerbahçe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Kasımpaşa or draw

49%

Kasımpaşa or Fenerbahçe

77%

Draw or Fenerbahçe

74%

Winning margin

Kasımpaşa wins by 2+

11%

Fenerbahçe wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Kasımpaşa 1+ goals

72%

Kasımpaşa 2+ goals

37%

Kasımpaşa 3+ goals

14%

Fenerbahçe 1+ goals

85%

Fenerbahçe 2+ goals

56%

Fenerbahçe 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Kasımpaşa (draw refunded)

34%

Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasımpaşa at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.87 · 5 matches

Fenerbahçe away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.97 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasımpaşa attack 1.61 + Fenerbahçe defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.29

Fenerbahçe attack 1.86 + Kasımpaşa defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kasımpaşa scores more

26%

level

23%

Fenerbahçe scores more

51%

Fenerbahçe at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Fenerbahçe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

D. Tadić

Fenerbahçe · M

7.9

Match Events

8'

Mamadou Fall

22'

A. Saint-Maximin↳ D. Tadić

37'

Allan Saint-MaximinPenalty confirmed

38'

Nicholas Opoku

39'

D. TadićPenalty

45+1'

Cláudio Winck

46'

A. Kara← L. Sadiku

49'

Jayden Oosterwolde

63'

E. Džeko← Y. En-Nesyri

63'

İ. Kahveci← A. Saint-Maximin

66'

A. Barák← H. Hajradinović

80'

Cafú← G. Gül

80'

J. Espinoza← Cláudio Winck

80'

Y. Akçiçek← M. Müldür

81'

S. Amrabat← D. Tadić

87'

M. Yandaş← Fred

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KasımpaşaFenerbahçe

Overview

58%Possession42%

14Total Shots6

0.93Expected Goals (xG)1.53

6Corners5

11Fouls16

Shots

14Total Shots6

2On Target2

10Off Target4

2Blocked0

7Inside Box5

7Outside Box1

Passing

58%Possession42%

456Total Passes340

360Accurate Passes250

79%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

0.28Goals Prevented0.28

Discipline

11Fouls16

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3