Kalmar FF 1–3 IFK Varnamo: Result & Stats

Kalmar FF

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

IFK Varnamo

10/29/2023

Allsvenskan · Round 28Guldfågeln Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Kalmar FF40%

×Draw26%

IFK Varnamo34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kalmar FFExpected goals in this matchIFK Varnamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.25

Kalmar FF

1.40

IFK Varnamo

1.25

Kalmar FF creates 12% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 61 away

1.11

creates per match

1.28

1.21

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Kalmar FF

1.11

IFK Varnamo

1.28

allows per match

Kalmar FF

1.21

IFK Varnamo

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kalmar FF+0.00on par

IFK Varnamo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalmar FF ↓

IFK Varnamo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Kalmar FF or draw

66%

Kalmar FF or IFK Varnamo

74%

Draw or IFK Varnamo

60%

Winning margin

Kalmar FF wins by 2+

19%

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Kalmar FF 1+ goals

75%

Kalmar FF 2+ goals

41%

Kalmar FF 3+ goals

17%

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals

71%

IFK Varnamo 2+ goals

36%

IFK Varnamo 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Kalmar FF (draw refunded)

55%

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalmar FF at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.21 · 113 matches

IFK Varnamo away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.69 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalmar FF attack 1.11 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.40

IFK Varnamo attack 1.28 + Kalmar FF defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kalmar FF scores more

40%

level

26%

IFK Varnamo scores more

34%

Kalmar FF at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kalmar FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff