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IFK Varnamo vs Kalmar FF — Allsvenskan 2018

IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF
5/19/2024AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 10Finnvedsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

IFK Varnamo37%
×Draw26%
Kalmar FF37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Varnamo
1.30
Kalmar FF
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 113 away

creates per match

IFK Varnamo
1.02
Kalmar FF
1.16

allows per match

IFK Varnamo
1.46
Kalmar FF
1.58

finishing

IFK Varnamo+0.00on par
Kalmar FF+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Varnamo ↓

Kalmar FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

IFK Varnamo or draw
63%
IFK Varnamo or Kalmar FF
74%
Draw or Kalmar FF
63%

Winning margin

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+
16%
Kalmar FF wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals
73%
IFK Varnamo 2+ goals
37%
IFK Varnamo 3+ goals
14%
Kalmar FF 1+ goals
73%
Kalmar FF 2+ goals
38%
Kalmar FF 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)
50%
Kalmar FF (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Varnamo at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.46 · 61 matches

Kalmar FF away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.58 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Varnamo attack 1.02 + Kalmar FF defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.30

Kalmar FF attack 1.16 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

IFK Varnamo scores more
37%
level
26%
Kalmar FF scores more
37%

IFK Varnamo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "IFK Varnamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: IFK Varnamo 0–2 Kalmar FF

Kalmar FF beat IFK Varnamo 2-0 in Allsvenskan on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Finnvedsvallen in Värnamo.