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IFK Varnamo vs Kalmar FF — Friendlies Clubs 2026

IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo
FT
2 – 3
Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF
3/28/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

IFK Varnamo38%
×Draw23%
Kalmar FF39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Varnamo
1.66
Kalmar FF
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

IFK Varnamo
1.82
Kalmar FF
1.88

allows per match

IFK Varnamo
1.45
Kalmar FF
1.50

finishing

IFK Varnamo+0.00on par
Kalmar FF+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Varnamo ↓

Kalmar FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

IFK Varnamo or draw
61%
IFK Varnamo or Kalmar FF
77%
Draw or Kalmar FF
62%

Winning margin

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+
19%
Kalmar FF wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals
81%
IFK Varnamo 2+ goals
49%
IFK Varnamo 3+ goals
23%
Kalmar FF 1+ goals
81%
Kalmar FF 2+ goals
50%
Kalmar FF 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)
50%
Kalmar FF (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Varnamo at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Kalmar FF away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Varnamo attack 1.82 + Kalmar FF defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.66

Kalmar FF attack 1.88 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

IFK Varnamo scores more
38%
level
23%
Kalmar FF scores more
39%

Kalmar FF at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kalmar FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IFK Varnamo vs Kalmar FF

Kalmar FF beat IFK Varnamo 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on March 28, 2026.