IFK Varnamo 1–2 Kalmar FF: Result & Stats

IFK Varnamo

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Kalmar FF

3/1/2026

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2Finnvedsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

IFK Varnamo27%

×Draw23%

Kalmar FF50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK VarnamoExpected goals in this matchKalmar FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.84

IFK Varnamo

1.29

Kalmar FF

1.84

Kalmar FF creates 43% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 15 away

1.38

creates per match

1.93

1.75

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

IFK Varnamo

1.38

Kalmar FF

1.93

allows per match

IFK Varnamo

1.75

Kalmar FF

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Varnamo+0.00on par

Kalmar FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Varnamo ↓

Kalmar FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

IFK Varnamo or draw

50%

IFK Varnamo or Kalmar FF

77%

Draw or Kalmar FF

73%

Winning margin

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+

11%

Kalmar FF wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals

72%

IFK Varnamo 2+ goals

37%

IFK Varnamo 3+ goals

14%

Kalmar FF 1+ goals

84%

Kalmar FF 2+ goals

55%

Kalmar FF 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)

35%

Kalmar FF (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Varnamo at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Kalmar FF away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Varnamo attack 1.38 + Kalmar FF defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

Kalmar FF attack 1.93 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

IFK Varnamo scores more

27%

level

23%

Kalmar FF scores more

50%

Kalmar FF at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kalmar FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff