Kalmar FF 2–0 Helsingborg: Result & Stats

Kalmar FF

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Helsingborg

S. Skrabb 67', 5'

10/2/2022

Allsvenskan · Round 24Guldfågeln Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Kalmar FF48%

×Draw25%

Helsingborg27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kalmar FFExpected goals in this matchHelsingborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.11

Kalmar FF

1.56

Helsingborg

1.11

Kalmar FF creates 41% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 46 away

1.10

creates per match

1.02

1.21

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Kalmar FF

1.10

Helsingborg

1.02

allows per match

Kalmar FF

1.21

Helsingborg

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kalmar FF+0.00on par

Helsingborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalmar FF ↓

Helsingborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Kalmar FF or draw

73%

Kalmar FF or Helsingborg

75%

Draw or Helsingborg

52%

Winning margin

Kalmar FF wins by 2+

24%

Helsingborg wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kalmar FF 1+ goals

79%

Kalmar FF 2+ goals

46%

Kalmar FF 3+ goals

21%

Helsingborg 1+ goals

67%

Helsingborg 2+ goals

30%

Helsingborg 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Kalmar FF (draw refunded)

64%

Helsingborg (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalmar FF at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.21 · 114 matches

Helsingborg away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.02 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalmar FF attack 1.10 + Helsingborg defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.56

Helsingborg attack 1.02 + Kalmar FF defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kalmar FF scores more

48%

level

25%

Helsingborg scores more

27%

Kalmar FF at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kalmar FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

S. Skrabb

Kalmar FF · M

8.6

Match Events

5'

S. Skrabb

43'

Arian Kabashi

46'

Diego Fumaça← A. Kabashi

46'

W. Loeper← R. Wiedesheim-Paul

51'

Abdulrahman Khalili

67'

S. Skrabb↳ S. Nanasi

69'

F. Sachpekidis← S. Skrabb

69'

D. Ólafsson← A. Lindahl

74'

R. Jönsson← A. Faltsetas

77'

N. Shamoun← S. Nanasi

84'

Amin Al Hamawi← P. Rejnhold

87'

P. Diouf← N. Girmai

89'

Rasmus Jönsson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KalmarHelsingborg

Overview

65%Possession35%

14Total Shots6

6Corners6

6Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots6

7On Target3

3Off Target2

4Blocked1

8Inside Box4

6Outside Box2

Passing

65%Possession35%

710Total Passes379

626Accurate Passes284

88%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

6Fouls14

0Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2