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Helsingborg vs Kalmar FF — Allsvenskan 2026

Helsingborg
Helsingborg
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF
A. van den Hurk 90' (pen)
L. Sætra 37'
7/2/2022AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 12Olympia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Helsingborg37%
×Draw27%
Kalmar FF36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Helsingborg
1.23
Kalmar FF
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 114 away

creates per match

Helsingborg
0.87
Kalmar FF
1.17

allows per match

Helsingborg
1.26
Kalmar FF
1.59

finishing

Helsingborg+0.00on par
Kalmar FF+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Helsingborg ↓

Kalmar FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Helsingborg or draw
64%
Helsingborg or Kalmar FF
73%
Draw or Kalmar FF
63%

Winning margin

Helsingborg wins by 2+
16%
Kalmar FF wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Helsingborg 1+ goals
71%
Helsingborg 2+ goals
35%
Helsingborg 3+ goals
13%
Kalmar FF 1+ goals
70%
Kalmar FF 2+ goals
34%
Kalmar FF 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Helsingborg (draw refunded)
51%
Kalmar FF (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Helsingborg at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

Kalmar FF away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.59 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Helsingborg attack 0.87 + Kalmar FF defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.23

Kalmar FF attack 1.17 + Helsingborg defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Helsingborg scores more
37%
level
27%
Kalmar FF scores more
36%

Helsingborg at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Helsingborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
V. DavidsenHelsingborgHelsingborg · D
7.5

Match Events

15'
Emil Hellman
37'
L. Sætra↳ S. Skrabb
67'
R. Jönsson← B. Acquah
67'
J. Amoako← W. Loeper
71'
Simon Skrabb
77'
N. Shamoun← S. Skrabb
81'
D. Olsson← L. Lingman
84'
J. Stenmark← I. Jansson
86'
Amin Al Hamawi← E. Hellman
90+1'
E. Israelsson← N. Girmai
90+1'
V. Backman← O. Berg
90'
A. van den HurkPenalty

Possession

42%Helsingborg

Shots

8Helsingborg

Pass accuracy

47%Helsingborg

Statistics

HelsingborgKalmar
Overview
42%Possession58%
8Total Shots11
8Corners4
11Fouls9
Shots
8Total Shots11
5On Target3
2Off Target6
1Blocked2
7Inside Box6
1Outside Box5
Passing
42%Possession58%
362Total Passes516
273Accurate Passes442
75%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls9
1Yellow Cards1
4Offsides0

Allsvenskan: Helsingborg 1–1 Kalmar FF

Helsingborg and Kalmar FF drew 1-1 in Allsvenskan on July 2, 2022.

Goals: L. Sætra (37'), A. van den Hurk (90' pen).

Kalmar FF controlled possession (58%) and registered 11 shots to 8.

The match was played at Olympia in Helsingborg.