Helsingborg 1–5 Kalmar FF: Result & Stats

Helsingborg

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 5

Kalmar FF

M. Gudmann 21'

A. Olusanya 41'

L. Saetra 38', 10'

B. Orn 26' (OG)

A. Magashy 7'

4/27/2025

Superettan · Round 5Olympia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Helsingborg31%

×Draw29%

Kalmar FF40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HelsingborgExpected goals in this matchKalmar FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.21

Helsingborg

1.04

Kalmar FF

1.21

Kalmar FF creates 16% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 15 away

1.54

creates per match

1.40

1.02

allows per match

0.53

creates per match

Helsingborg

1.54

Kalmar FF

1.40

allows per match

Helsingborg

1.02

Kalmar FF

0.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Helsingborg+0.00on par

Kalmar FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Helsingborg ↓

Kalmar FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Helsingborg or draw

60%

Helsingborg or Kalmar FF

71%

Draw or Kalmar FF

69%

Winning margin

Helsingborg wins by 2+

12%

Kalmar FF wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Helsingborg 1+ goals

65%

Helsingborg 2+ goals

28%

Helsingborg 3+ goals

9%

Kalmar FF 1+ goals

70%

Kalmar FF 2+ goals

34%

Kalmar FF 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Helsingborg (draw refunded)

44%

Kalmar FF (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Helsingborg at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.02 · 83 matches

Kalmar FF away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Helsingborg attack 1.54 + Kalmar FF defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.04

Kalmar FF attack 1.40 + Helsingborg defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Helsingborg scores more

31%

level

29%

Kalmar FF scores more

40%

Kalmar FF at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kalmar FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

39

L. Saetra

Kalmar FF · D

9.2

Match Events

7'

A. Magashy↳ C. Jebara

10'

L. Saetra↳ M. Hallberg

11'

Camil Jebara

21'

M. Gudmann

26'

B. OrnOwn goal

38'

L. Saetra↳ M. Hallberg

41'

A. Olusanya↳ L. Saetra

46'

Max Svensson

58'

A. Akimey← A. Svanback

59'

M. Rasmussen← M. Svensson

69'

E. Bajo← W. Westerlund

70'

I. Atanga← C. Jebara

70'

A. Sabriye← A. Magashy

72'

Benjamin Orn

77'

T. Gorefalt← B. Orn

77'

A. Nordin← S. Asoma

79'

R. Jansson← A. Motaraghebjafarpour

79'

M. Stolt← A. Olusanya

81'

Marcus Gudmann

86'

A. Djoro← S. Ylatupa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HelsingborgKalmar

Overview

47%Possession53%

7Total Shots15

1.07Expected Goals (xG)1.25

2Corners7

15Fouls11

Shots

7Total Shots15

3On Target7

1Off Target3

3Blocked5

5Inside Box9

2Outside Box6

Passing

47%Possession53%

399Total Passes497

332Accurate Passes418

83%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls11

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

0Offsides0