Kalmar FF 1–2 Falkenbergs FF: Result & Stats

Kalmar FF

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Falkenbergs FF

G. Sosseh 31'

S. Hindi 35'

V. Ekblom 6'

11/8/2025

Superettan · Round 30Guldfågeln Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kalmar FF53%

×Draw23%

Falkenbergs FF25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kalmar FFExpected goals in this matchFalkenbergs FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.21

Kalmar FF

1.88

Falkenbergs FF

1.21

Kalmar FF creates 55% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 44 away

2.07

creates per match

1.55

0.87

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Kalmar FF

2.07

Falkenbergs FF

1.55

allows per match

Kalmar FF

0.87

Falkenbergs FF

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kalmar FF+0.00on par

Falkenbergs FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalmar FF ↓

Falkenbergs FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Kalmar FF or draw

75%

Kalmar FF or Falkenbergs FF

77%

Draw or Falkenbergs FF

47%

Winning margin

Kalmar FF wins by 2+

30%

Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kalmar FF 1+ goals

85%

Kalmar FF 2+ goals

56%

Kalmar FF 3+ goals

29%

Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals

70%

Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals

34%

Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Kalmar FF (draw refunded)

68%

Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalmar FF at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Falkenbergs FF away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.68 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalmar FF attack 2.07 + Falkenbergs FF defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.88

Falkenbergs FF attack 1.55 + Kalmar FF defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kalmar FF scores more

53%

level

23%

Falkenbergs FF scores more

25%

Kalmar FF at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kalmar FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

G. Sosseh

Kalmar FF · M

7.9

Match Events

6'

22'

31'

35'

43'

L. Shahin← A. Andersson

57'

A. Magashy← A. Motaraghebjafarpour

58'

T. Kalinauskas← R. Sjostedt

58'

Chukwuemeka Emeka← M. Stolt

68'

N. Lundgren← L. Sibelius

68'

N. Hansson← G. Johansson

68'

H. Kallstrom← G. Aguda

84'

O. Lindberg← S. Hindi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KalmarFalkenbergs

Overview

64%Possession36%

19Total Shots9

1.88Expected Goals (xG)2.23

10Corners0

14Fouls11

Shots

19Total Shots9

5On Target3

10Off Target3

4Blocked3

10Inside Box7

9Outside Box2

Passing

64%Possession36%

608Total Passes345

527Accurate Passes293

87%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls11

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

0Offsides0

Superettan: Kalmar FF 1–2 Falkenbergs FF

Falkenbergs FF beat Kalmar FF 2-1 in Superettan on November 8, 2025.

Goals: V. Ekblom (6'), G. Sosseh (31'), S. Hindi (35').

Kalmar FF controlled possession (64%) and registered 19 shots to 9.

The match was played at Guldfågeln Arena in Kalmar.

Kalmar FF vs Falkenbergs FF — Superettan 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Superettan: Kalmar FF 1–2 Falkenbergs FF