Falkenbergs FF 0–0 Kalmar FF: Result & Stats

Falkenbergs FF

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kalmar FF

5/16/2025

Superettan · Round 8Falcon Alkoholfri Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Falkenbergs FF30%

×Draw27%

Kalmar FF43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Falkenbergs FFExpected goals in this matchKalmar FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.36

Falkenbergs FF

1.08

Kalmar FF

1.36

Kalmar FF creates 26% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

1.64

creates per match

1.40

1.33

allows per match

0.53

creates per match

Falkenbergs FF

1.64

Kalmar FF

1.40

allows per match

Falkenbergs FF

1.33

Kalmar FF

0.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Falkenbergs FF+0.00on par

Kalmar FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falkenbergs FF ↓

Kalmar FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Falkenbergs FF or draw

57%

Falkenbergs FF or Kalmar FF

73%

Draw or Kalmar FF

70%

Winning margin

Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+

12%

Kalmar FF wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals

66%

Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals

29%

Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals

10%

Kalmar FF 1+ goals

74%

Kalmar FF 2+ goals

39%

Kalmar FF 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)

41%

Kalmar FF (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falkenbergs FF at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

Kalmar FF away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falkenbergs FF attack 1.64 + Kalmar FF defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.08

Kalmar FF attack 1.40 + Falkenbergs FF defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Falkenbergs FF scores more

30%

level

27%

Kalmar FF scores more

43%

Kalmar FF at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kalmar FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

A. Salo

Falkenbergs FF · D

7.9

Match Events

51'

M. Hallberg← M. Stolt

60'

A. Andersson← I. Shears

69'

A. Sabriye← A. Magashy

80'

H. Kallstrom← O. Lindberg

82'

I. Atanga← S. Ylatupa

82'

G. Sosseh← C. Jebara

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FalkenbergsKalmar

Overview

34%Possession66%

11Total Shots14

1.31Expected Goals (xG)1.30

4Corners1

11Fouls9

Shots

11Total Shots14

3On Target1

4Off Target8

4Blocked5

7Inside Box6

4Outside Box8

Passing

34%Possession66%

351Total Passes683

276Accurate Passes577

79%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls9

0Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

0Offsides2