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Kalmar FF vs Falkenbergs FF — Allsvenskan 2026

Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Falkenbergs FF
Falkenbergs FF
10/25/2020AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 25Guldfågeln Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Kalmar FF52%
×Draw24%
Falkenbergs FF24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalmar FF
1.70
Falkenbergs FF
1.07

Kalmar FF creates 59% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 30 away

creates per match

Kalmar FF
1.13
Falkenbergs FF
0.93

allows per match

Kalmar FF
1.21
Falkenbergs FF
2.27

finishing

Kalmar FF+0.00on par
Falkenbergs FF+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalmar FF ↓

Falkenbergs FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kalmar FF or draw
76%
Kalmar FF or Falkenbergs FF
76%
Draw or Falkenbergs FF
48%

Winning margin

Kalmar FF wins by 2+
28%
Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kalmar FF 1+ goals
82%
Kalmar FF 2+ goals
51%
Kalmar FF 3+ goals
24%
Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals
66%
Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals
29%
Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kalmar FF (draw refunded)
69%
Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalmar FF at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.21 · 114 matches

Falkenbergs FF away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.27 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalmar FF attack 1.13 + Falkenbergs FF defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.70

Falkenbergs FF attack 0.93 + Kalmar FF defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kalmar FF scores more
52%
level
24%
Falkenbergs FF scores more
24%

Kalmar FF at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Kalmar FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
RomarinhoKalmar FFKalmar FF · M
7.5

Match Events

39'
K. Soderstrom
41'
N. Froling
67'
N. Peter← E. Sylisufaj
67'
N. Froling← F. Sachpekidis
67'
E. Crona← I. Jansson
75'
T. Englund← A. Wede
75'
K. Soderstrom← M. Ozen
81'
A. Herrem← A. Holmstrom
83'
A. Holmstrom
88'
A. Edqvist← C. Gustafsson
90+1'
C. Carlsson

Possession

49%Kalmar

Shots

4Kalmar

Pass accuracy

51%Kalmar

Statistics

KalmarFalkenbergs
Overview
49%Possession51%
4Total Shots10
3Corners2
21Fouls21
Shots
4Total Shots10
1On Target3
2Off Target6
1Blocked1
3Inside Box6
1Outside Box4
Passing
49%Possession51%
369Total Passes374
246Accurate Passes243
67%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
21Fouls21
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Kalmar FF vs Falkenbergs FF

Kalmar FF and Falkenbergs FF drew 0-0 in Allsvenskan on October 25, 2020.

Falkenbergs FF controlled possession (51%) and registered 10 shots to 4.

The match was played at Guldfågeln Arena in Kalmar.