Falkenbergs FF 0–2 Kalmar FF: Result & Stats

Falkenbergs FF

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Kalmar FF

P. Johansson 87'

Romarinho 69'

6/21/2020

Allsvenskan · Round 3Falcon Alkoholfri Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Falkenbergs FF35%

×Draw26%

Kalmar FF39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Falkenbergs FFExpected goals in this matchKalmar FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.39

Falkenbergs FF

1.29

Kalmar FF

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 113 away

1.00

creates per match

1.16

1.62

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Falkenbergs FF

1.00

Kalmar FF

1.16

allows per match

Falkenbergs FF

1.62

Kalmar FF

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Falkenbergs FF+0.00on par

Kalmar FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falkenbergs FF ↓

Kalmar FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Falkenbergs FF or draw

61%

Falkenbergs FF or Kalmar FF

74%

Draw or Kalmar FF

65%

Winning margin

Falkenbergs FF wins by 2+

15%

Kalmar FF wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Falkenbergs FF 1+ goals

72%

Falkenbergs FF 2+ goals

37%

Falkenbergs FF 3+ goals

14%

Kalmar FF 1+ goals

75%

Kalmar FF 2+ goals

40%

Kalmar FF 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Falkenbergs FF (draw refunded)

47%

Kalmar FF (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falkenbergs FF at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.62 · 29 matches

Kalmar FF away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.59 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falkenbergs FF attack 1.00 + Kalmar FF defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.29

Kalmar FF attack 1.16 + Falkenbergs FF defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Falkenbergs FF scores more

35%

level

26%

Kalmar FF scores more

39%

Kalmar FF at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kalmar FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Fidan Aliti

Kalmar FF · D

7.7

Match Events

29'

31'

41'

46'

58'

Y. Rafael← F. Sachpekidis

62'

E. Sylisufaj

63'

J. Chibuike← C. Carlsson

64'

M. Garbett← E. Sylisufaj

69'

Romarinho↳ I. Jansson

77'

I. Magnusson← I. Jansson

77'

G. Herrem← N. Fröling

83'

T. Englund← J. Ericsson

83'

K. Söderström← N. Peter

87'

P. Johansson

90'

G. Johansson← C. Johansson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FalkenbergsKalmar

Overview

44%Possession56%

11Total Shots11

2Corners5

16Fouls18

Shots

11Total Shots11

1On Target3

8Off Target3

2Blocked5

6Inside Box9

5Outside Box2

Passing

44%Possession56%

329Total Passes406

216Accurate Passes297

66%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls18

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2