Juventude 0–2 Flamengo: Result & Stats | Serie A

Juventude

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Flamengo

Emerson Royal 87'

G. de Arrascaeta 32'

9/14/2025

Serie A · Round 23Estadio Alfredo Jaconi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Juventude33%

×Draw27%

Flamengo40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuventudeExpected goals in this matchFlamengo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.30

Juventude

1.14

Flamengo

1.30

Flamengo creates 14% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 39 away

1.09

creates per match

1.40

1.21

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Juventude

1.09

Flamengo

1.40

allows per match

Juventude

1.21

Flamengo

1.18

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

Juventude+0.15scores more

Flamengo+0.32scores more

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude ↓

Flamengo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Juventude or draw

60%

Juventude or Flamengo

73%

Draw or Flamengo

67%

Winning margin

Juventude wins by 2+

13%

Flamengo wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Juventude 1+ goals

68%

Juventude 2+ goals

32%

Juventude 3+ goals

11%

Flamengo 1+ goals

73%

Flamengo 2+ goals

37%

Flamengo 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Juventude (draw refunded)

45%

Flamengo (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.21 · 33 matches

Flamengo away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.18 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude attack 1.09 + Flamengo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.14

Flamengo attack 1.40 + Juventude defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Juventude scores more

33%

level

27%

Flamengo scores more

40%

Flamengo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Flamengo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Emerson Royal

Flamengo · D

8.3

Match Events

-5'

Ênio

32'

G. de Arrascaeta↳ S. Niguez

41'

Ayrton Lucas

46'

Gabriel Veron← Rafael Bilu

50'

Gabriel Taliari

60'

Igor Formiga← Reginaldo

61'

Matheus Babi← Nene

65'

G. Plata← Pedro

71'

Luiz Araújo

76'

Lucas Fernandes← Jadson

78'

J. Carrascal← Luiz Araujo

83'

Gilberto← Gabriel Taliari

86'

Everton← Samuel Lino

86'

Wallace Yan← G. de Arrascaeta

87'

Emerson Royal↳ J. Carrascal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuventudeFlamengo

Overview

26%Possession74%

7Total Shots13

0.24Expected Goals (xG)1.25

6Corners7

16Fouls12

Shots

7Total Shots13

1On Target4

2Off Target4

4Blocked5

3Inside Box9

4Outside Box4

Passing

26%Possession74%

217Total Passes650

183Accurate Passes597

84%Pass Accuracy92%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

0.35Goals Prevented0.35

Discipline

16Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0