Juventude 2–2 Flamengo: Result & Stats | Serie A

Juventude

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Flamengo

Jadson 43'

Paulo Henrique 36'

Werton 90+1'

Matheuzinho 1'

11/10/2022

Serie A · Round 37Estádio Alfredo Jaconi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Juventude32%

×Draw27%

Flamengo41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuventudeExpected goals in this matchFlamengo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.32

Juventude

1.15

Flamengo

1.32

Flamengo creates 15% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 40 away

1.13

creates per match

1.39

1.25

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Juventude

1.13

Flamengo

1.39

allows per match

Juventude

1.25

Flamengo

1.16

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

Juventude+0.16scores more

Flamengo+0.31scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude ↓

Flamengo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Juventude or draw

59%

Juventude or Flamengo

73%

Draw or Flamengo

68%

Winning margin

Juventude wins by 2+

13%

Flamengo wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Juventude 1+ goals

68%

Juventude 2+ goals

32%

Juventude 3+ goals

11%

Flamengo 1+ goals

73%

Flamengo 2+ goals

38%

Flamengo 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Juventude (draw refunded)

44%

Flamengo (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.25 · 34 matches

Flamengo away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.16 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude attack 1.13 + Flamengo defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Flamengo attack 1.39 + Juventude defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Juventude scores more

32%

level

27%

Flamengo scores more

41%

Flamengo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Flamengo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

Jean Irmer

Juventude · M

7.6

Match Events

1'

8'

10'

29'

31'

36'

Paulo Henrique↳ Jean Irmer

39'

Ayrton Lucas

43'

Jadson↳ Paulo Henrique

51'

Vitor Mendes

64'

Mateusão← Victor Hugo

64'

G. Varela← Rodinei

65'

Rodrigo Soares← Dudu

65'

Rafinha← Felipe Pires

69'

Jean Irmer

72'

Ruan← Capixaba

75'

Werton← Matheus França

75'

Kayke David← Matheuzinho

78'

Chico Kim

83'

Mateusao

86'

Pará← Jean Irmer

90+4'

Paulo Henrique

90+1'

Werton↳ Ayrton

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuventudeFlamengo

Overview

37%Possession63%

11Total Shots10

2Corners4

17Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots10

4On Target3

6Off Target6

1Blocked1

4Inside Box10

7Outside Box0

Passing

37%Possession63%

292Total Passes491

222Accurate Passes426

76%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls14

6Yellow Cards3