Flamengo 6–0 Juventude: Result & Stats | Serie A

Flamengo

FT

6 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Juventude

Pedro 82', 72'

G. de Arrascaeta 57'

Danilo 23'

G. Plata 19'

E. Pulgar 14'

4/17/2025

Serie A · Round 4Estádio do Maracanã

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Flamengo58%

×Draw24%

Juventude18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FlamengoExpected goals in this matchJuventude

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.82

Flamengo

1.71

Juventude

0.82

Flamengo creates 109% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 32 away

1.63

creates per match

0.83

0.81

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Flamengo

1.63

Juventude

0.83

allows per match

Flamengo

0.81

Juventude

1.79

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Flamengo+0.30scores more

Juventude+0.01on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo ↓

Juventude →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Flamengo or draw

82%

Flamengo or Juventude

76%

Draw or Juventude

42%

Winning margin

Flamengo wins by 2+

33%

Juventude wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Flamengo 1+ goals

82%

Flamengo 2+ goals

51%

Flamengo 3+ goals

24%

Juventude 1+ goals

56%

Juventude 2+ goals

20%

Juventude 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Flamengo (draw refunded)

77%

Juventude (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.81 · 41 matches

Juventude away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.79 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo attack 1.63 + Juventude defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.71

Juventude attack 0.83 + Flamengo defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Flamengo scores more

58%

level

24%

Juventude scores more

18%

Flamengo at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Flamengo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

G. de Arrascaeta

Flamengo · M

9.3

Match Events

14'

E. Pulgar↳ G. de Arrascaeta

19'

G. Plata↳ Gerson

23'

Danilo↳ G. de Arrascaeta

38'

Ayrton Lucas← Alex Sandro

46'

Luiz Araujo← E. Pulgar

46'

Gilberto← Matheus Babi

46'

Marcos Paulo← Adriano Martins

46'

Enio← E. Batalla

57'

G. de Arrascaeta↳ Michael

58'

Pedro← G. de Arrascaeta

58'

Everton← Michael

60'

Nata← Davi Goes

69'

Jean Carlos← Mandaca

72'

Pedro↳ Wesley Franca

73'

Wesley

80'

Bruno Henrique← G. Plata

82'

Pedro

87'

Gilberto

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FlamengoJuventude

Overview

68%Possession32%

18Total Shots4

3.19Expected Goals (xG)0.16

6Corners0

14Fouls12

Shots

18Total Shots4

8On Target1

6Off Target2

4Blocked1

11Inside Box1

7Outside Box3

Passing

68%Possession32%

636Total Passes297

584Accurate Passes252

92%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

-1.86Goals Prevented-1.86

Discipline

14Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1

Serie A: Flamengo 6–0 Juventude

Flamengo beat Juventude 6-0 in Serie A on April 17, 2025.

Goals: E. Pulgar (14'), G. Plata (19'), Danilo (23'), G. de Arrascaeta (57'), Pedro (72', 82').

Flamengo controlled possession (68%) and registered 18 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estádio do Maracanã in Rio de Janeiro.

Flamengo vs Juventude — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Flamengo 6–0 Juventude