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Flamengo vs Juventude — Serie A 2026

Flamengo
Flamengo
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Juventude
Juventude
G. Plata 90+5'
G. de Arrascaeta 54'
Gabriel Barbosa 49' (pen)
Michael 8'
Edson Carioca 70'
Gilberto 24'
10/26/2024Serie ASerie A · Round 31Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Flamengo58%
×Draw24%
Juventude18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flamengo
1.71
Juventude
0.82

Flamengo creates 109% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 32 away

creates per match

Flamengo
1.63
Juventude
0.83

allows per match

Flamengo
0.81
Juventude
1.79

finishing

Flamengo+0.30scores more
Juventude+0.01on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo ↓

Juventude →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Flamengo or draw
82%
Flamengo or Juventude
76%
Draw or Juventude
42%

Winning margin

Flamengo wins by 2+
33%
Juventude wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Flamengo 1+ goals
82%
Flamengo 2+ goals
51%
Flamengo 3+ goals
24%
Juventude 1+ goals
56%
Juventude 2+ goals
20%
Juventude 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Flamengo (draw refunded)
77%
Juventude (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.81 · 41 matches

Juventude away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.79 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo attack 1.63 + Juventude defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.71

Juventude attack 0.83 + Flamengo defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Flamengo scores more
58%
level
24%
Juventude scores more
18%

Flamengo at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Flamengo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
GersonFlamengoFlamengo · M
9.0

Match Events

8'
Michael
24'
Gilberto↳ João Lucas
45+5'
Edson Carioca
49'
Gabriel BarbosaPenalty
51'
João Lucas
54'
G. de Arrascaeta↳ Gerson
56'
Marcelinho← Ewerthon
69'
G. Plata← Gabriel Barbosa
69'
C. Alcaraz← Michael
70'
Edson Carioca↳ Danilo Boza
72'
Nenê← Mandaca
72'
Gabriel Taliari← Gilberto
75'
Nenê
75'
Nenê
75'
Nenê
80'
Erick Farias← Edson Carioca
80'
Davi Goes← Luís Oyama
87'
Davi Goes
90+7'
Léo Pereira
90+3'
Carlos Alcaraz
90+1'
Giorgian De Arrascaeta
90+5'
G. Plata↳ Gerson

Possession

74%Flamengo

Shots

20Flamengo

Pass accuracy

55%Flamengo

Statistics

FlamengoJuventude
Overview
74%Possession26%
20Total Shots5
2.53Expected Goals (xG)0.62
8Corners1
8Fouls14
Shots
20Total Shots5
10On Target3
7Off Target2
3Blocked0
13Inside Box5
7Outside Box0
Passing
74%Possession26%
618Total Passes211
552Accurate Passes152
89%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
-0.43Goals Prevented-0.43
Discipline
8Fouls14
3Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards1
2Offsides1

Serie A: Flamengo 4–2 Juventude

Flamengo beat Juventude 4-2 in Serie A on October 26, 2024.

Goals: Michael (8'), Gilberto (24'), Gabriel Barbosa (49' pen), G. de Arrascaeta (54'), Edson Carioca (70'), G. Plata (90+5').

Flamengo controlled possession (74%) and registered 20 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro.