Juventude 1–1 Cuiaba: Result & Stats | Serie A

Juventude

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cuiaba

Nenê 90+5'

Matheus Alexandre 75'

11/23/2024

Serie A · Round 35Estádio Alfredo Jaconi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Juventude41%

×Draw30%

Cuiaba29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuventudeExpected goals in this matchCuiaba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.93

Juventude

1.15

Cuiaba

0.93

Juventude creates 24% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 12 away

1.09

creates per match

0.64

1.21

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Juventude

1.09

Cuiaba

0.64

allows per match

Juventude

1.21

Cuiaba

1.20

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.44scores more than expected

finishing

Juventude+0.15scores more

Cuiaba+0.44scores more

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude ↓

Cuiaba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Juventude or draw

71%

Juventude or Cuiaba

70%

Draw or Cuiaba

59%

Winning margin

Juventude wins by 2+

17%

Cuiaba wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Juventude 1+ goals

68%

Juventude 2+ goals

32%

Juventude 3+ goals

11%

Cuiaba 1+ goals

61%

Cuiaba 2+ goals

24%

Cuiaba 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Juventude (draw refunded)

58%

Cuiaba (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.21 · 33 matches

Cuiaba away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.20 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude attack 1.09 + Cuiaba defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.15

Cuiaba attack 0.64 + Juventude defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Juventude scores more

41%

level

30%

Cuiaba scores more

29%

Juventude at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Juventude will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

Jádson

Juventude · M

7.9

Match Events

4'

Filipe Augusto

23'

Jonathan Cafú← Derik Lacerda

46'

Gilberto← Gabriel Taliari

46'

Erick Farias← Edson Carioca

61'

Nenê← Mandaca

66'

Denilson← Fernando Sobral

66'

Lucas Mineiro← Filipe Augusto

75'

Matheus Alexandre

77'

Diego Gonçalves← Lucas Barbosa

82'

Jean Carlos← Ewerthon

85'

Bruno Alves

90'

Jonathan Cafú

90+3'

David Miguel← Clayson

90+5'

Nenê↳ Erick Farias

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuventudeCuiaba

Overview

60%Possession40%

19Total Shots7

1.25Expected Goals (xG)0.54

6Corners5

9Fouls7

Shots

19Total Shots7

4On Target1

11Off Target4

4Blocked2

11Inside Box4

8Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

500Total Passes340

423Accurate Passes262

85%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

0.38Goals Prevented0.38

Discipline

9Fouls7

0Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1