Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Juventude vs Cuiaba — Serie B 2026

Juventude
Juventude
Preview
22:00
Cuiaba
Cuiaba
7/17/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 18Estadio Alfredo Jaconi
49%
Juventude
model favours
49%31%20%

Juventude are unbeaten in 5 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
72%
under 2.5 goals
33%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Juventude49%
×Draw31%
Cuiaba20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventude
1.20
Cuiaba
0.65

Juventude creates 85% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 30 away

creates per match

Juventude
1.12
Cuiaba
0.83

allows per match

Juventude
0.47
Cuiaba
1.27

finishing

Juventude+0.00on par
Cuiaba+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude ↓

Cuiaba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Juventude or draw
80%
Juventude or Cuiaba
69%
Draw or Cuiaba
51%

Winning margin

Juventude wins by 2+
22%
Cuiaba wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Juventude 1+ goals
70%
Juventude 2+ goals
34%
Juventude 3+ goals
12%
Cuiaba 1+ goals
48%
Cuiaba 2+ goals
14%
Cuiaba 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Juventude (draw refunded)
71%
Cuiaba (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.47 · 17 matches

Cuiaba away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.27 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude attack 1.12 + Cuiaba defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Cuiaba attack 0.83 + Juventude defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Juventude scores more
49%
level
31%
Cuiaba scores more
20%

Juventude at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Juventude will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 78% of Cuiaba’s matches
  • Cuiaba score first in only 33% of matches
  • Both teams score in only 29% of Juventude’s matches
  • Cuiaba fall short of their xG (0.9 vs 1.4 expected)
  • Juventude and Cuiaba have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Juventude
Balanced
Cuiaba
Defensively solid
55%Possession53%
80%Pass accuracy81%
11.8ShotsBiggest gap14.3
1.13xG1.35
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
JuventudeCuiaba

Head-to-head

First-ever meeting

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Juventude
WDWWW
Cuiaba
DWDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Juventude vs Cuiaba — Match Preview

Juventude face Cuiaba on July 17, 2026 in this Serie B fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Juventude host Cuiaba at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.