Cuiaba 1–0 Juventude: Result & Stats | Serie A

Cuiaba

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Juventude

André 22'

8/13/2022

Serie A · Round 22Arena Pantanal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Cuiaba52%

×Draw26%

Juventude22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CuiabaExpected goals in this matchJuventude

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.86

Cuiaba

1.50

Juventude

0.86

Cuiaba creates 74% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 32 away

1.20

creates per match

0.83

0.90

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Cuiaba

1.20

Juventude

0.83

allows per match

Cuiaba

0.90

Juventude

1.79

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Cuiaba+0.30scores more

Juventude+0.01on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuiaba ↓

Juventude →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cuiaba or draw

78%

Cuiaba or Juventude

74%

Draw or Juventude

48%

Winning margin

Cuiaba wins by 2+

27%

Juventude wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Cuiaba 1+ goals

78%

Cuiaba 2+ goals

44%

Cuiaba 3+ goals

19%

Juventude 1+ goals

58%

Juventude 2+ goals

21%

Juventude 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Cuiaba (draw refunded)

71%

Juventude (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuiaba at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.90 · 12 matches

Juventude away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.79 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuiaba attack 1.20 + Juventude defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.50

Juventude attack 0.83 + Cuiaba defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cuiaba scores more

52%

level

26%

Juventude scores more

22%

Cuiaba at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cuiaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Walter

Cuiaba · G

7.5

Match Events

22'

André↳ Daniel Guedes

32'

Yuri

38'

Bruno NazárioPenalty cancelled

46'

Capixaba← Thalisson Kelven

46'

Elton← Yuri

55'

Alan Empereur

56'

Camilo← Alan Empereur

56'

Ricardo Bueno← I. Pitta

58'

Pepê

60'

Gabriel Pirani

66'

Daniel Guedes

66'

João Lucas← Daniel Guedes

66'

Deyverson← André

74'

Elton

74'

Jádson

81'

André Luis← Gabriel Pirani

82'

Paulão← Rafael Gava

82'

Vitor Leque← Moraes

82'

Vitor Gabriel← Jadson

90+3'

90+1'

90'

90+3'

90+1'

Vitor LequeRed card cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CuiabaJuventude

Overview

44%Possession56%

13Total Shots5

5Corners4

14Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots5

4On Target3

6Off Target2

3Blocked0

8Inside Box3

5Outside Box2

Passing

44%Possession56%

341Total Passes443

276Accurate Passes364

81%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls14

4Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards1

4Offsides2