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Cuiaba vs Juventude — Serie A 2026

Cuiaba
Cuiaba
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Juventude
Juventude
9/5/2024Serie ASerie A · Round 16Arena Pantanal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Cuiaba52%
×Draw26%
Juventude22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cuiaba
1.50
Juventude
0.86

Cuiaba creates 74% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 32 away

creates per match

Cuiaba
1.20
Juventude
0.83

allows per match

Cuiaba
0.90
Juventude
1.79

finishing

Cuiaba+0.30scores more
Juventude+0.01on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuiaba ↓

Juventude →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cuiaba or draw
78%
Cuiaba or Juventude
74%
Draw or Juventude
48%

Winning margin

Cuiaba wins by 2+
27%
Juventude wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cuiaba 1+ goals
78%
Cuiaba 2+ goals
44%
Cuiaba 3+ goals
19%
Juventude 1+ goals
58%
Juventude 2+ goals
21%
Juventude 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cuiaba (draw refunded)
71%
Juventude (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuiaba at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.90 · 12 matches

Juventude away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.79 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuiaba attack 1.20 + Juventude defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.50

Juventude attack 0.83 + Cuiaba defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cuiaba scores more
52%
level
26%
Juventude scores more
22%

Cuiaba at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cuiaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
João LucasJuventudeJuventude · D
7.7

Match Events

46'
Diego Gonçalves← Erick Farias
57'
Alan Empereur
59'
Filipe Augusto← Lucas Mineiro
61'
Lucas Barbosa
69'
Marcelinho← Lucas Barbosa
69'
Jean Carlos← Nenê
73'
Eliel← Clayson
73'
Railan← Jonathan Cafú
73'
Denilson← Max
82'
DenilsonPenalty cancelled
84'
Lucas Fernandes
84'
Edson Carioca← R. Carrillo
87'
Gustavo Sauer← Lucas Fernandes
90+1'
Denilson
90+5'
Gabriel Inocêncio← Alan Ruschel

Possession

53%Cuiaba

Shots

12Cuiaba

Pass accuracy

51%Cuiaba

Statistics

CuiabaJuventude
Overview
53%Possession47%
12Total Shots9
0.65Expected Goals (xG)0.55
3Corners3
17Fouls11
Shots
12Total Shots9
3On Target3
4Off Target6
5Blocked0
6Inside Box6
6Outside Box3
Passing
53%Possession47%
428Total Passes380
355Accurate Passes307
83%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
0.44Goals Prevented0.44
Discipline
17Fouls11
3Yellow Cards1
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Cuiaba vs Juventude

Cuiaba and Juventude drew 0-0 in Serie A on September 5, 2024.

Cuiaba controlled possession (53%) and registered 12 shots to 9.

The match was played at Arena Pantanal in Cuiabá, Mato Grosso.