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Juventude vs Criciuma — Serie B 2026

Juventude
Juventude
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Criciuma
Criciuma
5/10/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 8Estadio Alfredo Jaconi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Juventude44%
×Draw30%
Criciuma26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventude
1.17
Criciuma
0.83

Juventude creates 41% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 88 away

creates per match

Juventude
1.19
Criciuma
0.89

allows per match

Juventude
0.78
Criciuma
1.14

finishing

Juventude+0.00on par
Criciuma+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude ↓

Criciuma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Juventude or draw
74%
Juventude or Criciuma
70%
Draw or Criciuma
56%

Winning margin

Juventude wins by 2+
19%
Criciuma wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Juventude 1+ goals
69%
Juventude 2+ goals
33%
Juventude 3+ goals
11%
Criciuma 1+ goals
56%
Criciuma 2+ goals
20%
Criciuma 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Juventude (draw refunded)
63%
Criciuma (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.78 · 59 matches

Criciuma away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.14 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude attack 1.19 + Criciuma defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Criciuma attack 0.89 + Juventude defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Juventude scores more
44%
level
30%
Criciuma scores more
26%

Juventude at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Juventude will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32
AirtonCriciumaCriciuma · G
9.0

Match Events

35'
Lucas Mineiro
57'
Luan Martins
61'
Diego Goncalves← Romarinho
64'
Bruno Alves
65'
Luciano Castan
69'
Ruan Carvalho
70'
M. Castro← Luan Martins
76'
Fabio Lima← Nathan Santos
76'
Alisson Safira← Alan Kardec
76'
Jean Irmer← Jhonata Robert
76'
Caue Santos← Waguininho
83'
R. Otero← Fellipe Mateus
83'
Willean Lepo← Marcinho
90'
Willean Lepo
90'
Wadson← Diogo Barbosa
90'
I. Ly← MP

Possession

55%Juventude

Shots

15Juventude

Pass accuracy

52%Juventude

Statistics

JuventudeCriciuma
Overview
55%Possession45%
15Total Shots14
1.96Expected Goals (xG)1.32
7Corners9
14Fouls18
Shots
15Total Shots14
5On Target2
7Off Target8
3Blocked4
13Inside Box9
2Outside Box5
Passing
55%Possession45%
377Total Passes295
302Accurate Passes217
80%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
1.52Goals Prevented1.52
Discipline
14Fouls18
2Yellow Cards4
1Offsides1

Serie B: Juventude 0–0 Criciuma

Juventude and Criciuma drew 0-0 in Serie B on May 10, 2026.

Juventude controlled possession (55%) and registered 15 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi in Caxias do Sul.