Juventude 1–2 Criciuma: Result & Stats | Serie A

Juventude

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Criciuma

Luís Oyama 60'

Y. Bolasie 83', 57'

7/27/2024

Serie A · Round 20Estádio Alfredo Jaconi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Juventude32%

×Draw28%

Criciuma40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuventudeExpected goals in this matchCriciuma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.25

Juventude

1.08

Criciuma

1.25

Criciuma creates 16% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 6 away

1.08

creates per match

1.22

1.29

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Juventude

1.08

Criciuma

1.22

allows per match

Juventude

1.29

Criciuma

1.07

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Juventude+0.19scores more

Criciuma+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude ↓

Criciuma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Juventude or draw

60%

Juventude or Criciuma

72%

Draw or Criciuma

68%

Winning margin

Juventude wins by 2+

12%

Criciuma wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Juventude 1+ goals

66%

Juventude 2+ goals

29%

Juventude 3+ goals

10%

Criciuma 1+ goals

71%

Criciuma 2+ goals

36%

Criciuma 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Juventude (draw refunded)

44%

Criciuma (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.29 · 15 matches

Criciuma away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.07 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude attack 1.08 + Criciuma defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.08

Criciuma attack 1.22 + Juventude defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Juventude scores more

32%

level

28%

Criciuma scores more

40%

Criciuma at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Criciuma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Y. Bolasie

Criciuma · F

8.2

Match Events

30'

Wilker Ángel

46'

Higor Meritão← Barreto

55'

Nenê← Jean Carlos

55'

Luís Oyama← Caíque

55'

Gabriel Taliari← Gilberto

57'

Y. Bolasie↳ Claudinho

59'

Lucas Barbosa

60'

Luís Oyama↳ Jádson

68'

Rodrigo Fagundes

69'

Marquinhos Gabriel← Fellipe Mateus

71'

Marcelinho← Lucas Barbosa

79'

Ronald← Newton

82'

Diego Gonçalves← Erick Farias

83'

Y. Bolasie↳ Ronald

88'

Jonathan← Allano

88'

Tobias Figueiredo← Claudinho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuventudeCriciuma

Overview

58%Possession42%

12Total Shots14

0.47Expected Goals (xG)1.68

5Corners7

13Fouls18

Shots

12Total Shots14

5On Target7

4Off Target4

3Blocked3

6Inside Box8

6Outside Box6

Passing

58%Possession42%

487Total Passes340

408Accurate Passes271

84%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

-0.53Goals Prevented-0.53

Discipline

13Fouls18

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0