Criciuma 1–1 Juventude: Result & Stats | Serie A

Criciuma

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Juventude

Renato Kayzer 36'

Jean Carlos 64'

4/13/2024

Serie A · Round 1Estádio Heriberto Hülse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Criciuma44%

×Draw28%

Juventude28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CriciumaExpected goals in this matchJuventude

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.98

Criciuma

1.30

Juventude

0.98

Criciuma creates 33% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 16 away

0.86

creates per match

0.91

1.04

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Criciuma

0.86

Juventude

0.91

allows per match

Criciuma

1.04

Juventude

1.75

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

Criciuma-0.19scores less

Juventude+0.22scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Criciuma ↓

Juventude →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Criciuma or draw

72%

Criciuma or Juventude

72%

Draw or Juventude

56%

Winning margin

Criciuma wins by 2+

20%

Juventude wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Criciuma 1+ goals

73%

Criciuma 2+ goals

37%

Criciuma 3+ goals

14%

Juventude 1+ goals

62%

Juventude 2+ goals

26%

Juventude 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Criciuma (draw refunded)

61%

Juventude (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Criciuma at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.04 · 6 matches

Juventude away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.75 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Criciuma attack 0.86 + Juventude defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.30

Juventude attack 0.91 + Criciuma defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Criciuma scores more

44%

level

28%

Juventude scores more

28%

Criciuma at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Criciuma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

Jádson

Juventude · M

7.7

Match Events

18'

Erick Farias← Gilberto

29'

ÉderPenalty cancelled

32'

João Lucas

33'

Zé Marcos

36'

Renato Kayzer↳ Marcelo Hermes

45+7'

Jean Carlos

58'

Y. Bolasie← Éder

59'

Fellipe Mateus

61'

Marcelinho← Nenê

64'

64'

67'

72'

73'

78'

Y. Candelo← Claudinho

78'

Matheusinho← Marquinhos Gabriel

86'

M. Trauco← Fellipe Mateus

86'

Arthur Caíke← Renato Kayzer

90+6'

90+2'

90+6'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CriciumaJuventude

Overview

47%Possession53%

10Total Shots15

0.71Expected Goals (xG)0.57

0Corners4

11Fouls15

Shots

10Total Shots15

3On Target4

4Off Target7

3Blocked4

5Inside Box4

5Outside Box11

Passing

47%Possession53%

423Total Passes464

340Accurate Passes378

80%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

-0.19Goals Prevented-0.19

Discipline

11Fouls15

4Yellow Cards6

3Offsides4

Serie A: Criciuma 1–1 Juventude

Criciuma and Juventude drew 1-1 in Serie A on April 13, 2024.

Goals: Renato Kayzer (36'), Jean Carlos (64').

Juventude controlled possession (53%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estádio Heriberto Hülse in Criciúma, Santa Catarina.

Criciuma vs Juventude — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Criciuma 1–1 Juventude