Juventude 1–0 Criciuma: Result & Stats | Serie B

Juventude

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Criciuma

Alan Ruschel 53'

9/30/2023

Serie B · Round 30Estádio Alfredo Jaconi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Juventude44%

×Draw30%

Criciuma26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuventudeExpected goals in this matchCriciuma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.83

Juventude

1.17

Criciuma

0.83

Juventude creates 41% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 88 away

1.19

creates per match

0.89

0.78

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Juventude

1.19

Criciuma

0.89

allows per match

Juventude

0.78

Criciuma

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventude+0.00on par

Criciuma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventude ↓

Criciuma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Juventude or draw

74%

Juventude or Criciuma

70%

Draw or Criciuma

56%

Winning margin

Juventude wins by 2+

19%

Criciuma wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Juventude 1+ goals

69%

Juventude 2+ goals

33%

Juventude 3+ goals

11%

Criciuma 1+ goals

56%

Criciuma 2+ goals

20%

Criciuma 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Juventude (draw refunded)

63%

Criciuma (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventude at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.78 · 59 matches

Criciuma away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.14 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventude attack 1.19 + Criciuma defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Criciuma attack 0.89 + Juventude defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Juventude scores more

44%

level

30%

Criciuma scores more

26%

Juventude at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Juventude will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Fellipe Mateus

Criciuma · M

8.7

Match Events

5'

Gabriel TaliariGoal cancelled

8'

Lohan

17'

David

47'

Jean Irmer

53'

Alan Ruschel↳ David da Hora

57'

Jonathan

58'

Nenê← Tite

65'

Tiago Marques← Lohan

65'

Claudinho← Jonathan

68'

Emerson Santos← Jean Irmer

72'

Barreto← Marcelo Hermes

79'

Neilton← Marquinhos Gabriel

79'

João Carlos← Arilson

84'

Mandaca← Vini Paulista

84'

Ruan← David da Hora

84'

Rafael Furtado← Gabriel Taliari

88'

Joao Carlos Barros Lopes

90+7'

Luis Mandaca

90+5'

Rodrigo Fagundes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuventudeCriciuma

Overview

47%Possession53%

6Total Shots16

0Corners4

20Fouls15

Shots

6Total Shots16

2On Target6

3Off Target7

1Blocked3

3Inside Box11

3Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

333Total Passes374

265Accurate Passes307

80%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

Discipline

20Fouls15

3Yellow Cards4

4Offsides2

Match Recap: Juventude vs Criciuma

Juventude beat Criciuma 1-0 in Serie B on September 30, 2023.

Goals: Alan Ruschel (53').

Criciuma controlled possession (53%) and registered 16 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi in Caxias do Sul, Rio Grande do Sul.

Juventude vs Criciuma — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Juventude vs Criciuma