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Jong Ajax vs Emmen — Eerste Divisie 2018

Jong Ajax
Jong Ajax
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Emmen
Emmen
P. Mulder 81'
10/24/2025Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 13Sportcomplex De Toekomst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Jong Ajax39%
×Draw23%
Emmen37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jong Ajax
1.65
Emmen
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Jong Ajax
1.18
Emmen
1.43

allows per match

Jong Ajax
1.77
Emmen
2.11

finishing

Jong Ajax+0.53scores more
Emmen-0.10scores less

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong Ajax ↓

Emmen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Jong Ajax or draw
63%
Jong Ajax or Emmen
77%
Draw or Emmen
61%

Winning margin

Jong Ajax wins by 2+
20%
Emmen wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Jong Ajax 1+ goals
81%
Jong Ajax 2+ goals
49%
Jong Ajax 3+ goals
23%
Emmen 1+ goals
80%
Emmen 2+ goals
47%
Emmen 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Jong Ajax (draw refunded)
51%
Emmen (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong Ajax at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.77 · 7 matches

Emmen away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong Ajax attack 1.18 + Emmen defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.65

Emmen attack 1.43 + Jong Ajax defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Jong Ajax scores more
39%
level
23%
Emmen scores more
37%

Jong Ajax at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Jong Ajax will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
P. MulderEmmenEmmen · D
8.3

Match Events

15'
K. Kasanwirjo← A. Appiah
45+1'
Skye Vink
46'
N. Chourak← S. Steur
56'
Pascal Mulder
60'
F. Gerezgiher← N. Amadin
69'
A. Ouazane← S. Vink
74'
Marvyn Muzungu
75'
L. Jetten← E. Butera
75'
L. Abildgaard← D. Konadu
81'
P. Mulder↳ D. Nunumete
82'
D. Beukers← T. Geypens
82'
J. Mesbahi← R. Kongolo
89'
G. Bolk← D. Nunumete
90+4'
Nassef Chourak

Possession

50%Jong

Shots

8Jong

Pass accuracy

50%Jong

Statistics

JongEmmen
Overview
50%Possession50%
8Total Shots19
4Corners6
9Fouls12
Shots
8Total Shots19
3On Target7
3Off Target7
2Blocked5
6Inside Box12
2Outside Box7
Passing
50%Possession50%
450Total Passes449
366Accurate Passes367
81%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
6Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls12
3Yellow Cards1
3Offsides5

Match Recap: Jong Ajax vs Emmen

Emmen beat Jong Ajax 1-0 in Eerste Divisie on October 24, 2025.

Goals: P. Mulder (81').

Jong Ajax controlled possession (50%) and registered 8 shots to 19.

The match was played at Sportcomplex De Toekomst in Ouder-Amstel.