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Emmen vs Jong Ajax — Eerste Divisie 2018

Emmen
Emmen
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Jong Ajax
Jong Ajax
A. Sadiku 90+4'
F. Evina 54'
P. Mulder 48'
J. Kade 31'
J. Mokio 19'
J. Banel 12' (pen)
11/8/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 14De Oude Meerdijk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Emmen50%
×Draw23%
Jong Ajax28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emmen
1.88
Jong Ajax
1.35

Emmen creates 39% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Emmen
1.99
Jong Ajax
1.05

allows per match

Emmen
1.66
Jong Ajax
1.77

finishing

Emmen-0.32scores less
Jong Ajax-0.38scores less

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emmen ↓

Jong Ajax →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Emmen or draw
72%
Emmen or Jong Ajax
77%
Draw or Jong Ajax
50%

Winning margin

Emmen wins by 2+
28%
Jong Ajax wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Emmen 1+ goals
85%
Emmen 2+ goals
56%
Emmen 3+ goals
29%
Jong Ajax 1+ goals
74%
Jong Ajax 2+ goals
39%
Jong Ajax 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Emmen (draw refunded)
64%
Jong Ajax (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emmen at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.66 · 6 matches

Jong Ajax away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.77 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emmen attack 1.99 + Jong Ajax defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.88

Jong Ajax attack 1.05 + Emmen defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Emmen scores more
50%
level
23%
Jong Ajax scores more
28%

Emmen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Emmen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38
L. UnbehaunEmmenEmmen · G
7.9

Match Events

12'
Pascal Mulder
12'
J. BanelPenalty
13'
Jaydon Banel
19'
J. Mokio↳ P. Ugwu
31'
J. Kade
46'
T. Rhein← J. Hawkins
46'
G. Alders← J. Brandes
48'
P. Mulder↳ T. Rhein
54'
F. Evina↳ M. Martin
57'
Mike te Wierik
62'
J. Rijkhoff← D. Konadu
62'
S. Steur← K. Hlynsson
67'
A. Sadiku← F. Evina
71'
J. Faberski← J. Mokio
74'
Djenahro Nunumete
86'
R. Schouten← K. Nsona
86'
T. Geypens← M. Martin
90+3'
F. Quispel← J. Kade
90+2'
Y. Boerhout← K. Wolff
90+4'
A. Sadiku↳ F. Quispel

Possession

53%Emmen

Shots

17Emmen

Pass accuracy

51%Emmen

Statistics

EmmenJong
Overview
53%Possession47%
17Total Shots11
6Corners3
20Fouls4
Shots
17Total Shots11
10On Target7
6Off Target3
1Blocked1
14Inside Box7
3Outside Box4
Passing
53%Possession47%
449Total Passes413
342Accurate Passes303
76%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
5Saves6
Discipline
20Fouls4
3Yellow Cards1
3Offsides2

Eerste Divisie: Emmen 4–2 Jong Ajax

Emmen beat Jong Ajax 4-2 in Eerste Divisie on November 8, 2024.

Goals: J. Banel (12' pen), J. Mokio (19'), J. Kade (31'), P. Mulder (48'), F. Evina (54'), A. Sadiku (90+4').

Emmen controlled possession (53%) and registered 17 shots to 11.

The match was played at De Oude Meerdijk in Emmen.