Emmen 4–2 Jong Ajax: Result & Stats

Emmen

FT

4 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Jong Ajax

M. Pouwels 79'

J. Smeets 70'

L. Bernadou 59'

D. Ubbink 55'

O. Agougil 62', 34'

3/29/2024

Eerste Divisie · Round 32De Oude Meerdijk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Emmen50%

×Draw23%

Jong Ajax28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmmenExpected goals in this matchJong Ajax

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.35

Emmen

1.88

Jong Ajax

1.35

Emmen creates 39% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.99

creates per match

1.05

1.66

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Emmen

1.99

Jong Ajax

1.05

allows per match

Emmen

1.66

Jong Ajax

1.77

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

Emmen-0.32scores less

Jong Ajax-0.38scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emmen ↓

Jong Ajax →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Emmen or draw

72%

Emmen or Jong Ajax

77%

Draw or Jong Ajax

50%

Winning margin

Emmen wins by 2+

28%

Jong Ajax wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Emmen 1+ goals

85%

Emmen 2+ goals

56%

Emmen 3+ goals

29%

Jong Ajax 1+ goals

74%

Jong Ajax 2+ goals

39%

Jong Ajax 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Emmen (draw refunded)

64%

Jong Ajax (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emmen at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.66 · 6 matches

Jong Ajax away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.77 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emmen attack 1.99 + Jong Ajax defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.88

Jong Ajax attack 1.05 + Emmen defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Emmen scores more

50%

level

23%

Jong Ajax scores more

28%

Emmen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Emmen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

M. Pouwels

Emmen · F

8.2

Match Events

34'

O. Agougil↳ R. Chahid

38'

Oualid Agougil

46'

M. Heylen← R. Schouten

46'

D. Ubbink← M. Kieftenbeld

46'

M. Pouwels← V. Besuijen

55'

D. Ubbink↳ M. Pouwels

56'

D. Kalokoh← S. Vink

57'

N. Chourak← R. Chahid

57'

A. van Axel Dongen← K. Wolff

59'

L. Bernadou

62'

O. Agougil↳ A. Martha

70'

J. Smeets↳ D. Ubbink

71'

J. Hardeveld← L. Burnet

79'

M. Pouwels↳ J. Konings

80'

D. Vos← J. Smeets

84'

Dennis Vos

88'

Y. Boerhout← O. Gorter

88'

R. Speksnijder← J. Banel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EmmenJong

Overview

49%Possession51%

8Total Shots13

3Corners4

11Fouls8

Shots

8Total Shots13

7On Target3

1Off Target4

0Blocked6

5Inside Box10

3Outside Box3

Passing

49%Possession51%

407Total Passes425

319Accurate Passes339

78%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides2

Eerste Divisie: Emmen 4–2 Jong Ajax

Emmen beat Jong Ajax 4-2 in Eerste Divisie on March 29, 2024.

Goals: O. Agougil (34', 62'), D. Ubbink (55'), L. Bernadou (59'), J. Smeets (70'), M. Pouwels (79').

Jong Ajax controlled possession (51%) and registered 13 shots to 8.

The match was played at De Oude Meerdijk in Emmen.

Emmen vs Jong Ajax — Eerste Divisie 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eerste Divisie: Emmen 4–2 Jong Ajax