Emmen 0–0 Jong Ajax: Result & Stats

Emmen

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Jong Ajax

2/23/2026

Eerste Divisie · Round 24De Oude Meerdijk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Emmen50%

×Draw23%

Jong Ajax28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmmenExpected goals in this matchJong Ajax

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.35

Emmen

1.88

Jong Ajax

1.35

Emmen creates 39% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.99

creates per match

1.05

1.66

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Emmen

1.99

Jong Ajax

1.05

allows per match

Emmen

1.66

Jong Ajax

1.77

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

Emmen-0.32scores less

Jong Ajax-0.38scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emmen ↓

Jong Ajax →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Emmen or draw

72%

Emmen or Jong Ajax

77%

Draw or Jong Ajax

50%

Winning margin

Emmen wins by 2+

28%

Jong Ajax wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Emmen 1+ goals

85%

Emmen 2+ goals

56%

Emmen 3+ goals

29%

Jong Ajax 1+ goals

74%

Jong Ajax 2+ goals

39%

Jong Ajax 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Emmen (draw refunded)

64%

Jong Ajax (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emmen at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.66 · 6 matches

Jong Ajax away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.77 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emmen attack 1.99 + Jong Ajax defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.88

Jong Ajax attack 1.05 + Emmen defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Emmen scores more

50%

level

23%

Jong Ajax scores more

28%

Emmen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Emmen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38

L. Unbehaun

Emmen · G

8.6

Match Events

47'

Casper Staring

52'

Alaa Bakir

57'

Jinairo Johnson

59'

R. Kongolo← A. Hojabrpour

59'

D. Nunumete← A. Bakir

61'

S. Vink← D. Konadu

61'

P. Nash← L. Jetten

61'

M. Abdalla← J. Johnson

66'

Philip Sondergaard

66'

A. Ouazane← D. O'Niel

68'

F. Gerezgiher← N. Amadin

68'

G. Bolk← J. Mukeh

85'

Z. Ouazane← R. van de Pavert

87'

Filimon Gerezgiher

87'

T. Geypens← C. Staring

88'

Tim Geypens

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EmmenJong

Overview

51%Possession49%

15Total Shots11

0.95Expected Goals (xG)1.19

7Corners5

13Fouls16

Shots

15Total Shots11

4On Target8

6Off Target3

5Blocked0

10Inside Box9

5Outside Box2

Passing

51%Possession49%

381Total Passes393

307Accurate Passes318

81%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

8Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls16

5Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0