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Jaguares vs Internacional de Bogota — Primera A 2025

Jaguares
Jaguares
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Internacional de Bogota
Internacional de Bogota
D. Lopez 84'
J. A. Altamiranda Arrieta 61'
D. Moncada 53'
F. Sanguinetti 21'
K. Parra Atehortua 8'
1/29/2026Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 3Estadio Municipal de Futbol de Monteria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Jaguares51%
×Draw27%
Internacional de Bogota22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jaguares
1.43
Internacional de Bogota
0.85

Jaguares creates 68% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 51 away

creates per match

Jaguares
1.00
Internacional de Bogota
0.82

allows per match

Jaguares
0.89
Internacional de Bogota
1.86

finishing

Jaguares+0.00on par
Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaguares ↓

Internacional de Bogota →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Jaguares or draw
78%
Jaguares or Internacional de Bogota
73%
Draw or Internacional de Bogota
49%

Winning margin

Jaguares wins by 2+
25%
Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Jaguares 1+ goals
76%
Jaguares 2+ goals
42%
Jaguares 3+ goals
17%
Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals
57%
Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals
21%
Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Jaguares (draw refunded)
69%
Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaguares at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Internacional de Bogota away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.86 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaguares attack 1.00 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Internacional de Bogota attack 0.82 + Jaguares defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Jaguares scores more
51%
level
27%
Internacional de Bogota scores more
22%

Jaguares at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Jaguares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
J. A. Altamiranda ArrietaJaguaresJaguares · D
9.3

Match Events

8'
K. Parra Atehortua↳ F. Sanguinetti
14'
Yan MosqueraRed card cancelled
21'
F. Sanguinetti
45+4'
Johan Hinestroza
45+3'
Wilfrido De la Rosa
45+2'
Cristian AlvarezGoal cancelled
45+4'
Larry Vásquez
46'
J. A. Altamiranda Arrieta← L. Jimenez
53'
D. Moncada↳ K. Parra Atehortua
60'
R. R. Colpa Bolano← J. Hinestroza
60'
D. Lopez← S. Cubides
60'
Y. Moreno← Jopito
61'
J. A. Altamiranda Arrieta
66'
M. Rodas← K. Suarez
66'
R. Manjarres← L. Vasquez
71'
B. Caicedo← K. Parra Atehortua
72'
J. Valencia← F. Sanguinetti
75'
D. Rodriguez Urango← F. Mosquera
77'
Ruben Manjarres
84'
D. Lopez↳ J. A. Altamiranda Arrieta
86'
M. Santamaria← D. Moncada
90+1'
Wuilker Faríñez

Possession

69%Jaguares

Shots

11Jaguares

Pass accuracy

53%Jaguares

Statistics

JaguaresInternacional
Overview
69%Possession31%
11Total Shots16
6Corners3
13Fouls14
Shots
11Total Shots16
5On Target8
3Off Target5
3Blocked3
8Inside Box10
3Outside Box6
Passing
69%Possession31%
520Total Passes235
431Accurate Passes171
83%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls14
2Yellow Cards3
2Offsides3

Primera A: Jaguares 2–3 Internacional de Bogota

Internacional de Bogota beat Jaguares 3-2 in Primera A on January 29, 2026.

Goals: K. Parra Atehortua (8'), F. Sanguinetti (21'), D. Moncada (53'), J. A. Altamiranda Arrieta (61'), D. Lopez (84').

Jaguares controlled possession (69%) and registered 11 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Futbol de Monteria in Monteria.