Jaguares 0–0 Internacional de Bogota

Jaguares

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Internacional de Bogota

1/27/2024

Primera A · Apertura - 2Estadio de Fútbol Jaraguay de Montería

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Jaguares51%

×Draw27%

Internacional de Bogota22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JaguaresExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Bogota

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.85

Jaguares

1.43

Internacional de Bogota

0.85

Jaguares creates 68% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 51 away

1.00

creates per match

0.82

0.89

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Jaguares

1.00

Internacional de Bogota

0.82

allows per match

Jaguares

0.89

Internacional de Bogota

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jaguares+0.00on par

Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaguares ↓

Internacional de Bogota →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Jaguares or draw

78%

Jaguares or Internacional de Bogota

73%

Draw or Internacional de Bogota

49%

Winning margin

Jaguares wins by 2+

25%

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Jaguares 1+ goals

76%

Jaguares 2+ goals

42%

Jaguares 3+ goals

17%

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals

57%

Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals

21%

Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Jaguares (draw refunded)

69%

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaguares at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Internacional de Bogota away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.86 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaguares attack 1.00 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Internacional de Bogota attack 0.82 + Jaguares defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Jaguares scores more

51%

level

27%

Internacional de Bogota scores more

22%

Jaguares at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Jaguares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

J. Figueroa

Jaguares · G

7.5

Match Events

26'

Daniel Polanco

42'

Daniel Padilla

45+3'

Enrique Serje

46'

L. Escalante← D. Camacho

46'

É. Ricardo← Kevin David Salazar

46'

B. Fernández← K. Viveros

55'

L. Mosquera← F. Espinal

56'

D. Pino← E. Serje

56'

E. Guerrero← K. Lenis

65'

Exneyder Guerrero Quintana

65'

Johan Rojas

66'

J. Lloreda← Kevin Andrés Salazar

67'

E. Villalobos← D. Padilla

79'

Washington Ortega

80'

Yoiver González← J. Roa

81'

J. Mina← D. Polanco

84'

Jaime Diaz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JaguaresInternacional

Overview

58%Possession42%

16Total Shots10

10Corners3

15Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots10

5On Target3

8Off Target3

3Blocked4

10Inside Box5

6Outside Box5

Passing

58%Possession42%

378Total Passes275

291Accurate Passes180

77%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls15

4Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0