Internacional de Bogota 1–0 Jaguares

Internacional de Bogota

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Jaguares

J. Carvajal 87'

7/23/2024

Primera A · Clausura - 2Estadio Enrique Olaya Herrera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Internacional de Bogota56%

×Draw24%

Jaguares20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de BogotaExpected goals in this matchJaguares

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.89

Internacional de Bogota

1.70

Jaguares

0.89

Internacional de Bogota creates 91% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 17 away

1.28

creates per match

0.71

1.06

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Internacional de Bogota

1.28

Jaguares

0.71

allows per match

Internacional de Bogota

1.06

Jaguares

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par

Jaguares+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Bogota ↓

Jaguares →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Internacional de Bogota or draw

80%

Internacional de Bogota or Jaguares

76%

Draw or Jaguares

44%

Winning margin

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+

31%

Jaguares wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals

82%

Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals

51%

Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals

24%

Jaguares 1+ goals

59%

Jaguares 2+ goals

22%

Jaguares 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)

74%

Jaguares (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Bogota at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.06 · 50 matches

Jaguares away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Bogota attack 1.28 + Jaguares defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.70

Jaguares attack 0.71 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Internacional de Bogota scores more

56%

level

24%

Jaguares scores more

20%

Internacional de Bogota at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Internacional de Bogota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

W. Ortega

Internacional de Bogota · G

8.5

Match Events

27'

Juan RodríguezPenalty confirmed

45'

Martín Payares

46'

J. Mahecha← K. Salazar

46'

J. Lloreda← B. Quiñonez

61'

Ó. Vanegas← D. Padilla

61'

J. Herrera← J. Maza

64'

J. Ceballos← D. Castillo

65'

Léider Riascos

68'

Enrique Serje

73'

D. Rodríguez← K. Salazar

73'

J. Roa← G. Britos

81'

S. Gómez← L. Riascos

81'

J. Carvajal← J. Lloreda

84'

Jhon Palacios

87'

J. Carvajal

90+3'

Santiago Guzmán

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

InternacionalJaguares

Overview

60%Possession40%

10Total Shots12

2Corners3

18Fouls7

Shots

10Total Shots12

4On Target6

4Off Target3

2Blocked3

5Inside Box5

5Outside Box7

Passing

60%Possession40%

381Total Passes255

297Accurate Passes166

78%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls7

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1