Jaguares 1–1 Internacional de Bogota

Jaguares

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Internacional de Bogota

P. Rojas 90'

E. Moreno 90+5'

4/19/2023

Primera A · Apertura - 14Estadio de Fútbol Jaraguay de Montería

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Jaguares44%

×Draw29%

Internacional de Bogota27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JaguaresExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Bogota

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.93

Jaguares

1.27

Internacional de Bogota

0.93

Jaguares creates 37% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 131 away

1.11

creates per match

0.92

0.94

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Jaguares

1.11

Internacional de Bogota

0.92

allows per match

Jaguares

0.94

Internacional de Bogota

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jaguares+0.00on par

Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaguares ↓

Internacional de Bogota →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Jaguares or draw

73%

Jaguares or Internacional de Bogota

71%

Draw or Internacional de Bogota

56%

Winning margin

Jaguares wins by 2+

20%

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Jaguares 1+ goals

72%

Jaguares 2+ goals

36%

Jaguares 3+ goals

14%

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals

61%

Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals

24%

Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Jaguares (draw refunded)

62%

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaguares at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.94 · 100 matches

Internacional de Bogota away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.44 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaguares attack 1.11 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.27

Internacional de Bogota attack 0.92 + Jaguares defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Jaguares scores more

44%

level

29%

Internacional de Bogota scores more

27%

Jaguares at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Jaguares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

P. Rojas

Jaguares · M

8.0

Match Events

4'

9'

12'

13'

22'

22'

37'

45+4'

46'

46'

46'

60'

60'

É. Ricardo← J. Mahecha

65'

Carlos Arboleda

65'

Carlos ArboledaCard upgrade

70'

J. Castellanos← D. Padilla

76'

J. Altamiranda← J. Rojas

79'

J. Narváez← O. Duarte

82'

Nelino Tapia

90+1'

J. Lloreda← D. Camacho

90'

P. Rojas

90+5'

E. Moreno↳ J. Hernández

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JaguaresInternacional

Overview

59%Possession41%

20Total Shots13

6Corners5

15Fouls19

Shots

20Total Shots13

5On Target2

6Off Target6

9Blocked5

5Inside Box3

15Outside Box10

Passing

59%Possession41%

423Total Passes311

368Accurate Passes247

87%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls19

5Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Jaguares vs Internacional de Bogota

Jaguares and Internacional de Bogota drew 1-1 in Primera A on April 19, 2023.

Goals: P. Rojas (90'), E. Moreno (90+5').

Jaguares controlled possession (59%) and registered 20 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio de Fútbol Jaraguay de Montería in Montería.

Jaguares vs Internacional de Bogota — Primera A 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Jaguares vs Internacional de Bogota