Jaguares 2–0 Internacional de Bogota

Jaguares

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Internacional de Bogota

9/25/2020

Primera A · Round 10Estadio de Fútbol Jaraguay de Montería

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Jaguares43%

×Draw29%

Internacional de Bogota28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JaguaresExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Bogota

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.93

Jaguares

1.23

Internacional de Bogota

0.93

Jaguares creates 32% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 171 away

1.06

creates per match

0.90

0.96

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Jaguares

1.06

Internacional de Bogota

0.90

allows per match

Jaguares

0.96

Internacional de Bogota

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jaguares+0.00on par

Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaguares ↓

Internacional de Bogota →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Jaguares or draw

72%

Jaguares or Internacional de Bogota

71%

Draw or Internacional de Bogota

57%

Winning margin

Jaguares wins by 2+

19%

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Jaguares 1+ goals

71%

Jaguares 2+ goals

35%

Jaguares 3+ goals

13%

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals

61%

Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals

24%

Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Jaguares (draw refunded)

61%

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaguares at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.96 · 139 matches

Internacional de Bogota away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.41 · 171 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaguares attack 1.06 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.23

Internacional de Bogota attack 0.90 + Jaguares defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jaguares scores more

43%

level

29%

Internacional de Bogota scores more

28%

Jaguares at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Jaguares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff