İstanbulspor 1–1 Bandırmaspor: Result & Stats

İstanbulspor

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Bandırmaspor

E. Uzunhan 45'

L. Bacuna 39'

10/20/2025

1. Lig · Round 10Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

İstanbulspor44%

×Draw25%

Bandırmaspor30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

İstanbulsporExpected goals in this matchBandırmaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.23

İstanbulspor

1.54

Bandırmaspor

1.23

İstanbulspor creates 25% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 112 away

1.76

creates per match

1.31

1.14

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

İstanbulspor

1.76

Bandırmaspor

1.31

allows per match

İstanbulspor

1.14

Bandırmaspor

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

İstanbulspor+0.00on par

Bandırmaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

İstanbulspor ↓

Bandırmaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

İstanbulspor or draw

70%

İstanbulspor or Bandırmaspor

75%

Draw or Bandırmaspor

56%

Winning margin

İstanbulspor wins by 2+

22%

Bandırmaspor wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

İstanbulspor 1+ goals

79%

İstanbulspor 2+ goals

45%

İstanbulspor 3+ goals

20%

Bandırmaspor 1+ goals

71%

Bandırmaspor 2+ goals

35%

Bandırmaspor 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

İstanbulspor (draw refunded)

59%

Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

İstanbulspor at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.14 · 101 matches

Bandırmaspor away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.32 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

İstanbulspor attack 1.76 + Bandırmaspor defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.54

Bandırmaspor attack 1.31 + İstanbulspor defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

İstanbulspor scores more

44%

level

25%

Bandırmaspor scores more

30%

İstanbulspor at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "İstanbulspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

E. Uzunhan

İstanbulspor · D

8.2

Match Events

28'

Florian Loshaj

28'

Remi Mulumba

39'

L. Bacuna↳ R. Mulumba

45+5'

Dieumerci Ndongala

45'

E. Uzunhan↳ D. Aydin

46'

M. Ologo Inainfe← F. Tultak

60'

M. Sol← A. Cham

60'

W. Samake← D. Ndongala

66'

I. Dayakli← M. Mamadou

77'

O. Sahan← D. Aksu

77'

C. Sahin← M. Vorobjovas

86'

T. Kalender← Douglas Tanque

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

İstanbulsporBandırmaspor

Overview

59%Possession41%

14Total Shots7

3Corners3

7Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots7

8On Target1

5Off Target6

1Blocked0

9Inside Box6

5Outside Box1

Passing

59%Possession41%

539Total Passes373

451Accurate Passes292

84%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

Discipline

7Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2

Match Recap: İstanbulspor vs Bandırmaspor

İstanbulspor and Bandırmaspor drew 1-1 in 1. Lig on October 20, 2025.

Goals: L. Bacuna (39'), E. Uzunhan (45').

İstanbulspor controlled possession (59%) and registered 14 shots to 7.

The match was played at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu in Istanbul.

İstanbulspor vs Bandırmaspor — 1. Lig 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: İstanbulspor vs Bandırmaspor