Bandırmaspor 1–0 İstanbulspor: Result & Stats

Bandırmaspor

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

İstanbulspor

Marco Paixão 26' (pen)

2/17/2025

1. Lig · Round 25Bandırma 17 Eylül Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Bandırmaspor44%

×Draw27%

İstanbulspor29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BandırmasporExpected goals in this matchİstanbulspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.10

Bandırmaspor

1.41

İstanbulspor

1.10

Bandırmaspor creates 28% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

1.29

creates per match

1.25

0.96

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Bandırmaspor

1.29

İstanbulspor

1.25

allows per match

Bandırmaspor

0.96

İstanbulspor

1.53

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.68scores less than expected

finishing

Bandırmaspor+0.15scores more

İstanbulspor-0.68scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bandırmaspor ↓

İstanbulspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bandırmaspor or draw

71%

Bandırmaspor or İstanbulspor

73%

Draw or İstanbulspor

56%

Winning margin

Bandırmaspor wins by 2+

21%

İstanbulspor wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Bandırmaspor 1+ goals

76%

Bandırmaspor 2+ goals

41%

Bandırmaspor 3+ goals

17%

İstanbulspor 1+ goals

67%

İstanbulspor 2+ goals

30%

İstanbulspor 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)

60%

İstanbulspor (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bandırmaspor at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.96 · 9 matches

İstanbulspor away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.53 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bandırmaspor attack 1.29 + İstanbulspor defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.41

İstanbulspor attack 1.25 + Bandırmaspor defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bandırmaspor scores more

44%

level

27%

İstanbulspor scores more

29%

Bandırmaspor at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bandırmaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

A. Alkan

Bandırmaspor · G

7.7

Match Events

8'

Mehmet Özcan

22'

Yigit Fidan

23'

Remi MulumbaPenalty cancelled

26'

Marco PaixãoPenalty

46'

H. Çiftçi← M. Özcan

50'

H. Bilgiç← R. Berişbek

61'

Yunus Bahadir

69'

Tuncer Duhan Aksu

69'

Tuncer Duhan AksuCard upgrade

70'

İ. Kaya← D. Ndongala

77'

M. Louzif← Marco Paixão

77'

Ş. Özcan← D. Sambissa

80'

83'

88'

88'

90+7'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Bandırmasporİstanbulspor

Overview

46%Possession54%

14Total Shots13

5Corners8

16Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots13

6On Target4

5Off Target4

3Blocked5

8Inside Box5

6Outside Box8

Passing

46%Possession54%

293Total Passes336

203Accurate Passes247

69%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

16Fouls10

4Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

0Offsides3

Match Recap: Bandırmaspor vs İstanbulspor

Bandırmaspor beat İstanbulspor 1-0 in 1. Lig on February 17, 2025.

Goals: Marco Paixão (26' pen).

İstanbulspor controlled possession (54%) and registered 13 shots to 14.

The match was played at Bandırma 17 Eylül Stadı in Bandırma.

Bandırmaspor vs İstanbulspor — 1. Lig 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Bandırmaspor vs İstanbulspor