İstanbulspor 0–0 Bandırmaspor: Result & Stats

İstanbulspor

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bandırmaspor

9/22/2024

1. Lig · Round 6Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

İstanbulspor44%

×Draw25%

Bandırmaspor30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

İstanbulsporExpected goals in this matchBandırmaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.23

İstanbulspor

1.54

Bandırmaspor

1.23

İstanbulspor creates 25% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 112 away

1.76

creates per match

1.31

1.14

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

İstanbulspor

1.76

Bandırmaspor

1.31

allows per match

İstanbulspor

1.14

Bandırmaspor

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

İstanbulspor+0.00on par

Bandırmaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

İstanbulspor ↓

Bandırmaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

İstanbulspor or draw

70%

İstanbulspor or Bandırmaspor

75%

Draw or Bandırmaspor

56%

Winning margin

İstanbulspor wins by 2+

22%

Bandırmaspor wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

İstanbulspor 1+ goals

79%

İstanbulspor 2+ goals

45%

İstanbulspor 3+ goals

20%

Bandırmaspor 1+ goals

71%

Bandırmaspor 2+ goals

35%

Bandırmaspor 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

İstanbulspor (draw refunded)

59%

Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

İstanbulspor at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.14 · 101 matches

Bandırmaspor away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.32 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

İstanbulspor attack 1.76 + Bandırmaspor defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.54

Bandırmaspor attack 1.31 + İstanbulspor defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

İstanbulspor scores more

44%

level

25%

Bandırmaspor scores more

30%

İstanbulspor at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "İstanbulspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

İ. Doğan

İstanbulspor · G

8.2

Match Events

46'

D. Sambissa← V. Temel

71'

Y. Bahadır← Ö. Şahan

71'

V. Ethemi← G. Diarra

76'

Marco Paixão← Paulinho

77'

H. Çiftçi← Y. Dilek

78'

Jackson← K. Şen

81'

84'

84'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

İstanbulsporBandırmaspor

Overview

59%Possession41%

20Total Shots9

6Corners3

11Fouls12

Shots

20Total Shots9

6On Target3

10Off Target3

4Blocked3

9Inside Box5

11Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

480Total Passes339

406Accurate Passes251

85%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls12

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0