Bandırmaspor 1–2 İstanbulspor: Result & Stats

Bandırmaspor

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

İstanbulspor

P. Keny 45+3' (pen)

İ. Yılmaz 45+9' (pen), 33'

6/2/2022

1. Lig · Promotion Play-offs - FinalKocaeli Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Bandırmaspor44%

×Draw27%

İstanbulspor29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BandırmasporExpected goals in this matchİstanbulspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.10

Bandırmaspor

1.41

İstanbulspor

1.10

Bandırmaspor creates 28% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

1.29

creates per match

1.25

0.96

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Bandırmaspor

1.29

İstanbulspor

1.25

allows per match

Bandırmaspor

0.96

İstanbulspor

1.53

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.68scores less than expected

finishing

Bandırmaspor+0.15scores more

İstanbulspor-0.68scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bandırmaspor ↓

İstanbulspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bandırmaspor or draw

71%

Bandırmaspor or İstanbulspor

73%

Draw or İstanbulspor

56%

Winning margin

Bandırmaspor wins by 2+

21%

İstanbulspor wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Bandırmaspor 1+ goals

76%

Bandırmaspor 2+ goals

41%

Bandırmaspor 3+ goals

17%

İstanbulspor 1+ goals

67%

İstanbulspor 2+ goals

30%

İstanbulspor 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)

60%

İstanbulspor (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bandırmaspor at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.96 · 9 matches

İstanbulspor away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.53 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bandırmaspor attack 1.29 + İstanbulspor defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.41

İstanbulspor attack 1.25 + Bandırmaspor defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bandırmaspor scores more

44%

level

27%

İstanbulspor scores more

29%

Bandırmaspor at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bandırmaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

İ. Yılmaz

İstanbulspor · F

8.3

Match Events

33'

İ. Yılmaz↳ V. Ethemi

37'

Guy-Michel Landel

45+8'

Lokman Gör

45+1'

Lokman GörPenalty awarded

45+2'

Oğuzhan Berber

45+7'

Oğuzhan BerberPenalty awarded

45+3'

P. KenyPenalty

45+9'

İ. YılmazPenalty

46'

Eduart Rroca

48'

Philippe Keny

56'

Melih Kabasakal

56'

B. Şimşek← L. Ayçiçek

57'

M. Osmajić← G. Landel

67'

Beykan ŞimşekGoal cancelled

68'

72'

74'

75'

80'

E. Gültekin← İ. Yılmaz

81'

C. Köz← A. Koldaş

81'

M. Sarıkaya← E. Rroca

90+2'

M. Ologo← J. Topalli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Bandırmasporİstanbulspor

Overview

55%Possession45%

8Total Shots14

6Corners2

10Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots14

3On Target7

4Off Target5

1Blocked2

6Inside Box7

2Outside Box7

Passing

55%Possession45%

435Total Passes368

335Accurate Passes271

77%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls11

5Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1