Iskra 0–6 Victoria Bardar: Result & Stats | Cupa

Iskra

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 3

Victoria Bardar

V. Crîcimari 89'

O. Molla 70' (pen)

G. Orbu 56', 40', 29'

A. Andrei 45'

10/3/2023

Cupa · 2nd RoundStadionul Orăşenesc Rîbnița

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Iskra19%

×Draw15%

Victoria Bardar66%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IskraExpected goals in this matchVictoria Bardar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

3.54

Iskra

1.96

Victoria Bardar

3.54

Victoria Bardar creates 81% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 12 away

2.00

creates per match

3.58

3.50

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Iskra

2.00

Victoria Bardar

3.58

allows per match

Iskra

3.50

Victoria Bardar

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iskra+0.00on par

Victoria Bardar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over90
Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iskra ↓

Victoria Bardar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–12%

0–23%

0–33%

0–43%

1

1–01%

1–13%

1–25%

1–36%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–36%

2–46%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–34%

3–44%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (6%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

90%10%3.5

78%22%4.5

61%39%

Double chance

Iskra or draw

34%

Iskra or Victoria Bardar

85%

Draw or Victoria Bardar

81%

Winning margin

Iskra wins by 2+

9%

Victoria Bardar wins by 2+

47%

Team goals

Iskra 1+ goals

86%

Iskra 2+ goals

58%

Iskra 3+ goals

31%

Victoria Bardar 1+ goals

97%

Victoria Bardar 2+ goals

86%

Victoria Bardar 3+ goals

66%

Draw no bet

Iskra (draw refunded)

23%

Victoria Bardar (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

80%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iskra at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

Victoria Bardar away — creates 3.58, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iskra attack 2.00 + Victoria Bardar defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.96

Victoria Bardar attack 3.58 + Iskra defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Iskra scores more

19%

level

15%

Victoria Bardar scores more

66%

Victoria Bardar at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Victoria Bardar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

40'

45'

56'

70'

O. MollaPenalty

89'

V. Crîcimari

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff