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Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Hapoel Kfar Saba — Liga Leumit 2019

Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hapoel Kfar Saba
Hapoel Kfar Saba
11/24/2023Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 9Netanya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ironi Kiryat Shmona55%
×Draw24%
Hapoel Kfar Saba21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.67
Hapoel Kfar Saba
0.92

Ironi Kiryat Shmona creates 82% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 95 away

creates per match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona
2.05
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.25

allows per match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona
0.58
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.28

finishing

Ironi Kiryat Shmona+0.00on par
Hapoel Kfar Saba+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ironi Kiryat Shmona ↓

Hapoel Kfar Saba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ironi Kiryat Shmona or draw
79%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona or Hapoel Kfar Saba
76%
Draw or Hapoel Kfar Saba
45%

Winning margin

Ironi Kiryat Shmona wins by 2+
30%
Hapoel Kfar Saba wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1+ goals
81%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2+ goals
50%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3+ goals
23%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 1+ goals
60%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 2+ goals
23%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ironi Kiryat Shmona (draw refunded)
73%
Hapoel Kfar Saba (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

Hapoel Kfar Saba away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.28 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona attack 2.05 + Hapoel Kfar Saba defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.67

Hapoel Kfar Saba attack 1.25 + Ironi Kiryat Shmona defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ironi Kiryat Shmona scores more
55%
level
24%
Hapoel Kfar Saba scores more
21%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ironi Kiryat Shmona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Hapoel Kfar Saba

Ironi Kiryat Shmona beat Hapoel Kfar Saba 1-0 in Liga Leumit on November 24, 2023.

The match was played at Netanya Stadium in Netanya.