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Hapoel Kfar Saba vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Kfar Saba
Hapoel Kfar Saba
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
3/4/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 24Levita Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hapoel Kfar Saba25%
×Draw27%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Kfar Saba
0.95
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.42

Ironi Kiryat Shmona creates 49% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 18 away

creates per match

Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.23
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.50

allows per match

Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.33
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
0.67

finishing

Hapoel Kfar Saba+0.00on par
Ironi Kiryat Shmona+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Kfar Saba ↓

Ironi Kiryat Shmona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Hapoel Kfar Saba or draw
52%
Hapoel Kfar Saba or Ironi Kiryat Shmona
73%
Draw or Ironi Kiryat Shmona
75%

Winning margin

Hapoel Kfar Saba wins by 2+
9%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Hapoel Kfar Saba 1+ goals
61%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 2+ goals
25%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 3+ goals
7%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1+ goals
76%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2+ goals
41%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Kfar Saba (draw refunded)
35%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Kfar Saba at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.33 · 90 matches

Ironi Kiryat Shmona away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Kfar Saba attack 1.23 + Ironi Kiryat Shmona defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.95

Ironi Kiryat Shmona attack 1.50 + Hapoel Kfar Saba defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hapoel Kfar Saba scores more
25%
level
27%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona scores more
48%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ironi Kiryat Shmona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Kfar Saba vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona

Hapoel Kfar Saba and Ironi Kiryat Shmona drew 0-0 in Liga Leumit on March 4, 2024.

The match was played at Levita Stadium in Kfar-Saba.