Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1–0 Hapoel Kfar Saba

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hapoel Kfar Saba

I. Nachmias 13'

12/27/2020

Ligat Ha'al · Round 13Kiryat-Shmona Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Ironi Kiryat Shmona46%

×Draw26%

Hapoel Kfar Saba28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ironi Kiryat ShmonaExpected goals in this matchHapoel Kfar Saba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.06

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

1.44

Hapoel Kfar Saba

1.06

Ironi Kiryat Shmona creates 36% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 21 away

1.26

creates per match

0.81

1.30

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

1.26

Hapoel Kfar Saba

0.81

allows per match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

1.30

Hapoel Kfar Saba

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ironi Kiryat Shmona+0.00on par

Hapoel Kfar Saba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ironi Kiryat Shmona ↓

Hapoel Kfar Saba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ironi Kiryat Shmona or draw

72%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona or Hapoel Kfar Saba

74%

Draw or Hapoel Kfar Saba

54%

Winning margin

Ironi Kiryat Shmona wins by 2+

22%

Hapoel Kfar Saba wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1+ goals

76%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2+ goals

42%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3+ goals

18%

Hapoel Kfar Saba 1+ goals

65%

Hapoel Kfar Saba 2+ goals

29%

Hapoel Kfar Saba 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ironi Kiryat Shmona (draw refunded)

62%

Hapoel Kfar Saba (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.30 · 87 matches

Hapoel Kfar Saba away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.62 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona attack 1.26 + Hapoel Kfar Saba defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.44

Hapoel Kfar Saba attack 0.81 + Ironi Kiryat Shmona defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ironi Kiryat Shmona scores more

46%

level

26%

Hapoel Kfar Saba scores more

28%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ironi Kiryat Shmona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

Muhamad Shaker

8'

Y. Stoyanov← T. Machlof

10'

13'

32'

42'

43'

51'

A. Ben Shimon← I. Nachmias

53'

55'

65'

75'

75'

77'

77'

O. Dasa← M. Omoh

77'

I. Shor← T. Getahon

80'

A. Rochet← R. Kehat

89'

G. Ben Lulu← M. Shaker

Ironi4-3-3

Hapoel

1

Zalmanovi

4

▼

Machlof

36

Atanda

7

Shelach

29

▼

Omoh

14

▼

Getahon

15

▼

Cohen

21

Kizito

26

Fochive

11

▼

10

29

6

3

5

⚽

▼

18

11

10

19

▼

Kehat

16

▼

Shaker

13

Ansah

99

Maranhão

Manager: K. Refua

51'▲A. Ben Shimon←▼I. Nachmias

80'▲A. Rochet←▼R. Kehat

89'▲G. Ben Lulu←▼M. Shaker

Ironi Kiryat Shmona substitutes

32Shimon23Rochet7Lulu1Zamir2Levin4Shabat9Halaihal15Shirdatzki20Drori

8'▲Y. Stoyanov←▼T. Machlof

65'▲Y. Afriat←▼S. Dror

77'▲B. Chayoun←▼R. Cohen

77'▲O. Dasa←▼M. Omoh

77'▲I. Shor←▼T. Getahon

Hapoel Kfar Saba substitutes

27Stoyanov9Afriat16Chayoun17Dasa77Shor23Becker33Galanti99Cissoko2Franko

Match Recap: Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Hapoel Kfar Saba

Ironi Kiryat Shmona beat Hapoel Kfar Saba 1-0 in Ligat Ha'al on December 27, 2020.

Goals: I. Nachmias (13').

The match was played at Kiryat-Shmona Municipal Stadium in Kiryat-Shmona.

Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Hapoel Kfar Saba — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Hapoel Kfar Saba